Donald Trump's hold over the Republican Party is eroding at a rapid clip, according to longtime Democratic strategist James Carville — and the sudden demise has left the longtime critic reeling.
Speaking on his Politics War Room podcast, Carville pointed to what he called one of the most overlooked stories in American politics — a rapid slide in approval ratings among his own party members. He put the number at roughly 80 percent — a steep drop from the 95 percent he was pulling earlier in his term.
“It’s so hard after being so obsessed with Trump for so long for the last 10 years; it’s just been Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump — the country is starting to turn away from him,” he said.
“Sure, his polling numbers are down. But he’s just becoming less relevant in people’s minds. And I think that applies to Republican primary voters in South Carolina. I think every day his endorsement loses a tenth of a point’s influence.”
He was referring to Tuesday's vote in which Trump-backed Sen. Darline Graham didn't win enough votes to avoid a runoff election.
A recent YouGov/Economist poll found Republican approval for Trump sitting at 79 percent, down from 94 percent when his second term began. A separate ActiVote survey from July found nearly identical numbers, also landing at 79 percent, compared to 86 percent back in January 2025.
But Carville argued that Trump's real panic is that Republican voters are starting to tune him out altogether — show by his once-untouchable primary endorsement failing to secure Graham a win.
Much of the collapse traces back to Trump's decision to launch strikes on Iran in February without congressional sign-off, Carville said. The war has never been popular — support has stayed under 40 percent since the bombing campaign began on February 28, a far cry from the initial support levels for Iraq or Afghanistan.
Nearly seven in ten — including 40 percent of Republicans — told Reuters/Ipsos that Trump still hasn't clearly explained why the U.S. is even fighting. That's not surprising, given that Trump has cycled through several different justifications, from regime change to dismantling Iran's missile program to blocking a nuclear weapon, without settling on one.
Two-thirds of the country wants the war over now, per the same poll — including 73 percent of independents and even 30 percent of Republicans. Still, most Americans doubt it'll end soon: 37 percent expect it to drag on for months, and 32 percent fear it could stretch into years.
Even Republican pollster David Winston warned this week that if Democrats can hold their advantage on the economy and keep winning independents by wide margins, a Democratic wave in November is a real possibility.
