2026 Midterm Elections

The Republican Party's dysfunction in Georgia is turning what should have been a winnable Senate seat into a likely Democratic victory. The culprit: Donald Trump and Gov. Brian Kemp can't get along, leaving the GOP field fractured and Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) sitting pretty.

According to Politico, Republicans expected to flip this Senate seat and strengthen their grip on the chamber. Instead, they're watching Ossoff cruise toward re-election with $24 million in the bank, a massive name-ID advantage, and zero Democratic competition in his primary.

Meanwhile, the GOP is descending into chaos. The May 19 primary will almost certainly trigger an expensive, brutal mid-June runoff as Republicans batter each other over the nomination.

Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA), a Trump ally, leads in polling. Rep. Buddy Carter and Kemp-endorsed former football coach Derek Dooley are fighting for second. But a large share of voters remain undecided, revealing how chaotic the race truly is.

"If Ossoff could write a playbook for how he wants this primary to go, this is exactly it," said one GOP operative. "Georgia is like a 'red-headed stepchild' not getting any attention from Washington."

The collapse traces directly to GOP incompetence. Republicans failed to recruit a strong candidate or unify the field. The National Republican Senatorial Committee's recruitment efforts were lackluster. But most damaging: Trump and Kemp refuse to agree on a candidate, forcing an expensive primary that bleeds the eventual nominee's resources before facing Ossoff.

GOP strategists are already pointing fingers. "It's a mess that could have been much less messy if they had figured this out six months ago," said one strategist. "Everybody's resigned to this going to May and then a June runoff and then pick up the pieces after that."

Ryan Mahoney, a GOP strategist, highlighted the stark disparity in positioning.

"Jon Ossoff has $24 million. Jon Ossoff is on TV all of the time, carefully articulating his positions, grilling Tulsi Gabbard — really being methodical. He has tons of resources — great name ID, a lot of exposure — while the Republicans are fighting against each other, trying to see who can break out and ultimately be the nominee. He's just in a great position."

The Georgia race is now a microcosm of the GOP's broader midterm problem: voters are souring on Trump's agenda, Democrats are competitive in red states, and Republicans are too busy fighting each other to mount an effective offense.