All posts tagged "trump tariffs"

'Drag on growth': CBO warns Trump policies will kneecap the economy ahead of 2028 election

Republicans insist that the "Big, Beautiful Bill," plus President Donald Trump's tariff and immigration policies, could energize the U.S. economy. But a nonpartisan scorekeeper reports Friday that this claim is not true, calling it a "drag on growth" ahead of the 2028 elections.

A new report from the Congressional Budget Office predicts that "over the next three years, policies implemented this year by Trump and the Republican-led Congress will have little effect on growth before the 2028 election," Politico reports.

"In 2027 and 2028, the effects of reduced net immigration on the labor force and the waning of the reconciliation act’s near-term boost to demand act as a drag on growth," according to the report. "Partially offsetting those effects, an increase in domestic production, driven by higher tariffs, provides a boost to economic growth. As a result, real GDP growth in those years is roughly the same as it was in CBO’s January 2025 projections."

Elevated uncertainty over tariffs and substantial policy changes are estimated to have a ripple effect. And although the president's tariff policies could cool and later rev up, that boost could wane, the forecast expects.

"At the end of 2028, the level of real GDP is about 0.1 percent higher than it was in CBO’s January 2025 projections because of the economic effects of the reconciliation act, higher tariffs, and lower net immigration; the effects of interactions among those factors; and adjustments to reflect recently published data," according to the CBO report.

The agency plans to publish its economic projections for 2026 to 2036 as part of The Budget and Economic Outlook.

'Don't know where it's going': Farmers stressed as Trump tariffs threaten record harvest

Farmers are reporting record yields for crops this fall but it's unclear who will buy them.

The ongoing trade war between China and the U.S. is testing farmers' faith in the Trump administration, Politico reports.

“When our members are in the fields harvesting, they will be staring at a visual representation of this economy and this looming farm crisis. They will be looking at literal piles of corn and other row crops,” said Lesly Weber McNitt, vice president of public policy at the National Corn Growers Association, in an interview with Politico. “They don’t know where it’s going.”

And with no soybean orders coming from China since May, "crop farmers have lost a significant export market, driving down the price of top U.S. crops like soybeans and corn, even as Trump’s tariffs drive up the cost of farm equipment and fertilizer." The American Soybean Association is now shifting its purchases to Brazil and other countries. In comparison, China purchased $12.64 billion in soybeans from American farmers in 2024.

Republican lawmakers and farmers warn that this could be a looming crisis for America's agriculture industry — crops could pile up and farmers could end up in the red.

But farmers are still not blaming Trump and his trade policies yet, "a sign of just how much grace the agriculture community continues to grant Trump, even as his ambitious efforts to restructure the global trade economy clash directly with their economic interests," Politico reports.

However, that patience and loyalty could wane.

President Donald Trump won farmers' support in the 2024 election, promising to improve wages and lower inflation. As the administration struggles to pursue trade negotiations, slapping tariffs and Wednesday urging the EU to slap 100% tariffs on China and India, Reuters reports.

Companies like John Deere — an agricultural industry supplier for farmers — report significant losses due to the higher tariffs, mostly on steel but also on aluminum, are impacting its profits. The company has lost $300 million so far and nearly another $300 million loss is expected by the end of 2025. The company laid off 238 employees in Illinois and Iowa factories over the summer.

As farmers see a lowering demand for some crops overseas, the company cites a 15 to 20 percent drop in large agricultural machinery purchases, the New York Times reports. That downward trend is expected to carry into 2026.

Trump's promised 'boom' is 'not happening' — and tariff impact is 'undeniable': expert

President Donald Trump's promise to bring back U.S. manufacturing jobs has backfired as tariff-exposed industries are losing jobs, CNN reports.

The "American manufacturing renaissance" Trump pledged has had the opposite result following the president's trade war, impacting manufacturing, construction, and transportation industries, according to new analysis by Apollo Global chief economist Torsten Slok.

Slock reviewed a three-month moving average of employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and found that these tariff-impacted sectors had job loss in recent years; however, this is the first time that payroll growth has been negative over a period of the last several months.

Hiring has weakened, and these tariff-exposed industries have had major layoffs. Crashing lumber prices and companies like John Deere have seen 'troubling' signs.

A new revision to jobs data released Tuesday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed a staggering 911,000 fewer jobs were added in the year leading up to March of this year.

“The tariff impact on hiring is now undeniable. The manufacturing renaissance, the hiring boom, is just not happening,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, told CNN.

Tariff price increases for steel, copper, and aluminum, along with other materials, have hiked prices for manufacturers that were supposed to see a benefit from the changing trade agenda.

Economists say that the Trump administration's chaotic strategy has caused uncertainty and "paralyzed" manufacturers, which has prompted companies to pull back on hiring.

“It turns out the community of economists were correct that launching a trade war would result in slower growth and few jobs. That’s what is happening,” Brusuelas said.

The Trump administration denied on Tuesday that jobs and hiring are down in the United States. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt argued in a news conference that the economy Trump was handed as he entered office was "a mess" and blamed President Joe Biden's administration.

Americans are losing faith in finding new jobs. New data from the New York Federal Reserve shows consumers indicate there is only a 45% chance of finding a new job if they don't have one currently, and that was consumers who are “broad-based across age, education and income groups."

It was "most pronounced for those with at most a high school education,” the data showed. That is down from 51% in July — the lowest reading since the survey launched in 2013.

'Troubling': Trump tariffs blamed as prices 'crash' in major industry

Crashing lumber prices are sending a "troubling" warning sign for the U.S. economy following uncertainty over President Donald Trump's tariffs and a "deteriorating housing market," the Wall Street Journal reported Monday.

"Crashing wood prices are troubling because they have been a reliable leading indicator on the direction of the housing market as well as broader economic activity," according to the Journal.

Two U.S. sawyers last week said they will decelerate production and "curtail output, slowing the decline."

Trump tariffs and import taxes have caused unpredictable impacts on supply chains.

"During the Covid-19 lockdown, two-by-four prices nearly tripled the prepandemic record, an early sign of the inflation and broken supply chains that would bedevil the economic reopening," the Journal noted. "When the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in 2022 to curb inflation, lumber was among the first assets to decline in value. Now, prices are signaling caution again."

Lumber prices have had a turbulent road. In anticipation of Trump's threatened higher duties on Canadian imports and tariffs on wood, a surplus of wood was set aside in the United States.

Wood prices climbed in the spring when the White House claimed "it was investigating national security aspects of imported lumber and Trump threatened steep tariffs on all Canadian goods."

The price plummeted when Trump let down tariff talk on Canada, and then prices surged again in May when buyers were looking ahead.

"In May, they started surging again as buyers began stocking up ahead of the scheduled hike in existing Canadian lumber duties and Trump’s threatened tariffs," according to WSJ.

The Trump administration is reportedly considering more tariffs — as it did with aluminum, steel and copper products — on imported wood, citing national security concerns.

Producers plan to continue cutting back on production.

In July, residential building permits slipped to just 1.4 million units, a seasonally adjusted annual rate, and the fewest units in construction since June 2020.

Construction spending in the U.S. dropped by 3.4% in July compared to the record amount set in May 2024.

Chocolate shortage looming due to Trump tariffs: NYT editor

President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs are ratcheting up the cost of everyday items, including staples that Americans routinely rely on for comfort — like chocolate.

Mara Gay with The New York Times told MSNBC's Jonathan Lemire Friday that Trump's tried-and-true "blame game" won't be enough to distract Americans from the reality of higher prices hitting cocoa beans and other simple pleasures.

"The Trump administration really doesn't have popular support for the tariffs," Gay said, "so, really what we're seeing here is a one trick pony shop where the only thing that they know how to do in The Trump administration is outsource the blame, and blame the courts. And I think that's not really going to distract the American people from any upheaval in the economy, which we're already seeing in prices increasing."

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Gay continued, "I went even to the ice cream shop the other day, and I was told there's no chocolate ice cream because it costs too much to import chocolate right now. So, you know, Americans are noticing and I think the Trump administration isn't quite sure what to do about it. So, their default is blame someone else, and in this case it's the courts."

Lemire added, "Obviously it's a small anecdote there, but if things like chocolate ice cream start to run out or become too expensive, Americans are really going to mine that pain."

Watch the clip below via MSNBC or click the link.

'Who buys a Rolex?' CNN host gobsmacked by out-of-touch tariff argument

CNN's Brianna Keilar was taken aback during a discussion on the Trump tariffs after "Shark Tank" star Kevin O'Leary brought up the price of Rolex watches, which start at about $6,400.

"Rolex just this hour raised their prices — and everybody in the U.S. knows what a Rolex watch is — by 3% to offset the tariff imposed on Switzerland, even though there is no trading imbalance with Switzerland," O'Leary said, as Keilar interrupted him.

"OK, Kevin, so I'm going to stop you. Everyone knows about Rolex, but like, who buys a Rolex? I mean, a lot of people do not buy a Rolex watch, right? So, let me ask you this, because you say they should wait until you see the trade deals —"

"Well, hold on, there," O'Leary interjected to assert that Americans do, in fact, buy Rolexes.

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"I know, but if they didn't have a Rolex watch, like, they're not going to go hungry, OK? So, this is my point, right? Hopefully, they're not going to disappoint their child at Christmas. Hopefully, their child is grown, I guess, if they're buying them a Rolex."

Keilar then asked O'Leary about President Donald Trump's "two dolls instead of 30" comment.

"Is that good messaging?" she asked.

"It's tough love, there's no question about it. And, yes, it didn't go over that well. I agree with you. That's tough to tell children. Less toys under the tree at Christmas. That's tough, I get it," O'Leary said.

"But, it's not just toys, right, Kevin? I mean, it's not just about toys. There's other stuff besides toys that people need."

"Well, you didn't like my watch analogy. It's watches too," O'Leary said.

Watch the clip below or at this link.

'Stop with the sit-ins!' Dems pushed to jump on Trump's 'Marie Antoinette' moment

Democratic strategists took to CNN Thursday to implore party leaders to stop talking and start taking action to show how painful President Donald Trump's tariffs are to average Americans.

Anchor Kate Bolduan played a clip of Trump quipping at Wednesday's Cabinet meeting, "Well, maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, you know? And maybe the two dolls would cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally."

Ana Navarro began, "It's just, it's so disconnected from everyday reality of Americans. It's so tone deaf. It's so 'Marie Antoinette, let them eat cake.' And I think it's part of the the problem is that Donald Trump is not only surrounded by a bunch of sycophants who don't push back on him, but they're rich sycophants."

She then talked about the bigger picture Trump's tariffs mean for the economy.

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"That means less shipping, less workers in the ports. It means less drivers taking the inventory to the stores. It means less people working in the store to check out those items, to put them on the shelves. The trickle down on the economy is enormous of not having those items come in."

Bolduan asked if Democrats were "harnessing that message correctly" for voters.

"No, I don't," Democratic strategist Julie Roginsky answered bluntly. "I don't think Democrats are doing what Ana just did — what some of us do every day — which is, go out there and say plainly what is happening."

She added sarcastically, "Maybe Chuck Schumer can write a sternly-worded letter to President Trump about the dolls, because that's basically what we've seen out of leadership."

"If I were Democrats, I would stop with the letter writing campaigns. I would stop with the sit-ins on the steps of the Capitol. I would get my butt to the Port of Los Angeles right now, which is seeing ships come in with virtually nothing on them because of these tariffs. And I would point to the fact that this is the impact — the real-life impact — for jobs, for consumers, for Americans, about what is happening right now. Get out of D.C!"

Watch the clip below via CNN or click the link.

'No strategy at all!' Senator grills Trump trade rep amid tariff chaos

The ranking member on the Senate Finance Committee grilled U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer Tuesday about the Trump tariffs set to take effect Wednesday, calling the situation they've caused for average Americans, "pretty rotten stuff."

"I saw at page four of your testimony, Mr. Greer, you said the president's strategy is already bearing fruit," Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) began. " I can tell you, for a lot of Oregonians who have 401Ks that are being drained out, that's pretty rotten stuff, and you ought to realize how serious this is for the country."

Wyden continued, "Now, everybody in the administration practically has a different story about the Trump tax hike. So, I'm interested in knowing what the story is today. Will higher tariffs go into effect tomorrow as announced?"

"The president's fixed in his purpose," Greer said. "The nature of the emergency...is not something we can wait on anymore. So, we will have the president's plan go into effect."

Last week, President Donald Trump declared that "foreign trade and economic practices have created a national emergency," as he announced the sweeping tariffs against U.S. trade partners.

ALSO READ: 'Not much I can do': GOP senator gives up fight against Trump's tariffs

Greer said that "about 50" nations that are facing tariffs have approached the U.S. for negotiations.

Wyden asked what the status was with China, after Chinese officials responded to Trump's additional 50% tariffs on that nation, stating, "If the U.S. insists on its own way, China will fight to the end."

"I don't see much progress," Wyden said. "What I see is, it looks like it's going to escalate and escalate some more and hurt our consumers and our small businesses and our part of the world."

Greer responded, "Unfortunately, China, for many years, seems to be choosing its own path on market access. Again, they have agency in this. They elected to announce retaliation; other countries did not. Other countries signaled that they'd like to find a path forward on reciprocity. China has not said that, and we will see where that goes."

He continued, "I think we need to work with our closest friends to make sure that we have trading arrangements that work. And if the Chinese are open, you know, we'll see what — but they haven't signaled that at all. So, I don't think that's in the very near term with China."

"I just am concerned that there is no strategy at all!" Wyden exclaimed.

Watch the clip below via CNN.

'Incompetent cadre of yes men': CEOs furious at Trump team amid chaotic market spiral

A CNBC survey of business executives revealed an overwhelming majority expected an economic recession as a result of the Trump tariffs, with one calling the whole situation, "disproportionally stupid and illogical."

The business network reported the results of a "CEO flash survey" it conducted among its CNBC Council members including 22 chief executives. According to the report, 69 percent said they expected a recession, with more than half predicting the economic decline would occur this year. Three-quarters of those CEOs described the coming recession as "moderate or mild," the survey showed.

One CEO labeled it "the Trump recession."

Further results revealed that just over a third of the CEOs said they expected to cut jobs due to the downturn, with just under half claiming it was still too soon to know what changes will need to be made. The CEOs taking a "wait-and-see approach" said they're running through worst-case scenarios involving their suppliers and consumers.

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"CEOs expressed a wide variety of views and emotions," the report said, with one stating, "Trump has imposed tariffs on component parts that are simply unavailable in the U.S. and never will be. He has surrounded himself with an incompetent cadre of yes men and women unable or unwilling to offer him cogent counsel."

All of the CEOs said they will have to raise consumer prices from between 5 percent to 20 percent, with one CEO saying, "We imagine that our suppliers will have to swallow part of the tariff and we will have to pass on part of the tariff to our customers."

Trump has claimed that the tariffs would encourage new manufacturing plants to be constructed in the U.S., but "few" of the CEOs surveyed agreed the administration's policies "would lead their company to build new domestic manufacturing," CNBC reported.

"Increased capital expense for construction will delay, or reduce the scale of projects," one CEO said, while another claimed, "tariffs on building goods will likely slow and postpone capital construction projects."

Still another commented, "All of the uncertainty with how it's being handled will harm our business and limit investment until this is all concluded."

On Monday, high-profile hedge fund manager Bill Ackman and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon both denounced the tariffs' deleterious effects on the economy, but Trump remained undeterred. The president threatened to tack an additional 50% tariff on China after that nation imposed retaliatory tariffs, causing the markets to continue their downward spiral.

Read the CNBC report here.

'Scared and sick': CNN guest warns focus put on special elections is a bad sign for Trump

CNN's John Berman asked conservative commentator Scott Jennings to explain in one sentence what he thinks President Donald Trump's tariff policy will look like when he announces it on April 2, adding, "Do you think [the president] can explain it in one sentence today?"

"Well, I would never want to predict or get ahead of Donald Trump," Jennings began. "But my view is, is that he's been very clear that he believes tariffs will force more manufacturing, more production, more onshoring into the United States, which will ultimately be good for the working class of America."

Jennings said the people who agree with the president are the unions, like the head of the United Auto Workers, Shawn Fain.

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"But Scott, what's he doing? What's he going to do?" Berman continued. "Because he said 'reciprocal' — now he's maybe saying not now."

Berman added that no one eally knows where Trump is going with this strategy, "and this is like two days from now."

Jennings explained the general principle behind Trump's thinking is "he believes that tariffs force jobs, manufacturing and production back into the United States. The working class will benefit from this. and if allowed to play out over the long term, it will benefit, you know, the core working class constituency that he believes has been hollowed out by trade policies of the past. that is their general economic view."

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Peter Navarro, senior counselor for trade, "says 10 years, $6 trillion of revenue of revenue from tariffs, which some economists will tell you is $6 trillion in taxes," Berman added.

Democratic political consultant Maria Cardona claimed, "This is something that Americans are actually becoming very concerned with, and that's why you're seeing the volatility in all of these special elections. The fact that we are even talking about the two special elections in Florida tomorrow, John, I think is an indication of how scared and sick voters are about what Trump is imposing on them versus what they expected because of his promises during the election."

Trump said on Sunday that the reciprocal tariffs he plans to announce this week will include all nations, "not just a smaller group of 10 to 15 countries with the biggest trade imbalances," according to NBC News.

Watch the video below or at this link.