Incoming US President Barack Obama will likely face a "serious crisis" over Iran's nuclear ambitions in his first year in office, former US defense secretary William Perry predicted here Thursday.
Perry, speaking at a forum offering advice to the new administration, also said both Iran and North Korea must be contained to avoid a "cascade of nuclear proliferation" in the Middle East and northeast Asia.
Iran, in particular, presents not only a direct threat to Israel but the world at large through the spread of nuclear technology to terrorist groups, he told the forum sponsored by the United States Institute of Peace.
Perry said North Korea's production of plutonium and nuclear test in 2006 amounted to the "most dangerous development" since the Cold War ended nearly two decades ago, but he believed it could be contained through diplomacy.
But he said he was "less confident" about diplomatic efforts involving the United States -- under the outgoing administration of President George W. Bush -- European countries, Russia and China.
The talks "are going nowhere," said Perry, who was defense secretary under President Bill Clinton.
"It seems clear that Israel will not sit by idly while Iran takes defiant steps toward becoming a nuclear power," Perry said.
"As a result President Obama will almost certainly face a serious crisis with Iran. Indeed, I believe that crisis point will be reached in his first year in office," he added.
None of these problems can be solved unilaterally but at the same time it will be difficult to gain international cooperation to resolve them, he said, adding that relations with Russia were "at an all-time low."
He said he hoped Obama could get off to a fresh start with Russia, which is key to resolving the Iran nuclear issue.
Perry, a former cold warrior who advocated US nuclear weapons, said he is now pushing for the ultimate abolition of such weapons but said the United States needs to bolster its deterrent over the short term.
"I'm motivated ... by a strong belief that the gravest danger facing our nation today is a terror group detonating a nuclear bomb in one of our cities," Perry said.
He said he also knows the risks from miscalculations and accidents while serving during previous US administrations.
He said efforts to rid the world of nuclear weapons that began after the Cold War have "stalled and even reversed," because of developments in Iran and North Korea, as well as in China, Russia, India and Pakistan.
He also faulted the United States for having never ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.
"If Iran and North Korea cannot be contained, we are facing a real danger of a cascade of nuclear proliferation," he said.
"Indeed I believe that today we are truly on the tipping point of nuclear proliferation."
