Clinton takes Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island
Hillary Clinton kept her candidacy alive Tuesday with wins in Ohio and Texas, and she vowed to continue her campaign.
With her victories in Tuesday night's two biggest prizes, Hillary Clinton vowed to fight on, meaning the Democrats likely won't have a nominee to face John McCain, who locked up the GOP nod Tuesday, until after Pennsylvania votes in late April.
Cable networks MSNBC and Fox called Ohio for Hillary Clinton just before 11 p.m., while Texas remained undecided until nearly 1 a.m., when MSNBC called it. Clinton and Barack Obama split the earliest results announced from Rhode Island and Vermont, but the night's two biggest prizes -- Texas and Ohio -- were still being fought over by proxy even after the polls closed.
When Ohio was called, it appeared that ballots from Cleveland still hadn't been counted. The city was expected to be an Obama stronghold, but Clinton's lead statewide seemed to be insurmountable.
A judge in Cleveland ordered polls there open until 9 p.m. Tuesday after problems were reported by supporters of Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Meanwhile, Clinton's campaign was lobbing accusations of irregularities by Obama's camp in Texas's caucuses.
Exit polls showed a tight race developing between Obama and Clinton in both those state. Obama was declared the winner in Vermont, which also voted Tuesday, as soon as polls closed there, and early returns and exit polls showed him with a wide margin.
In Rhode Island, the fourth state voting Tuesday, Clinton was declared the winner less than two hours after polls closed, although early returns seemed to indicate that Obama was able to cut into Clinton's once-wide lead there.
Poll times extended in Ohio, Clinton campaign alleges irregularities in Texas
In Texas, Clinton's campaign released a statement to reporters accusing Obama supporters of circulating caucus sign-in sheets before the 7 p.m. start time for Tuesday's caucuses.
"Unfortunately, we have received numerous reports that the Obama campaign is violating Texas Democratic Party rules by circulating precinct convention sign in sheets in advance and are having them filled in now," Clinton's Texas director Ace Smith said in the statement. "These underhanded tactics undermine the process that all parties agreed to."
Later Tuesday evening, the Clinton campaign convened an "emergency" conference call pointing out what it said was meddling by Obama supporters.
"This appears to be a statewide systemic problem," a campaign lawyer told reporters.
The Obama campaign's general counsel Bob Bauer crashed the call and accused the Clinton campaign of leveling similar accusations before every caucus. Clinton has fared less well in caucuses than in primaries.
"In Nevada, you filed a lawsuit before the caucuses even began, and in Iowa you threatened students," Bauer said. "This isn't the first time you've done something like this."
Clinton communications adviser Howard Wolfson engaged in a heated exchange with Bauer and accused the Obama lawyer of attempting a "defense of the indefensible."
More on the Texas dispute is available from local station KVUE, National Review's Online's The Corner and Wired's Threat Level blog. Politico has audio of the Bauer-Wolfson call.
In Ohio, Clinton accused Obama poll watchers of challenging voters too aggressively and not having proper credentials to observe the vote. The campaign sent a press release to reporters trumpeting a report that Ohio's secretary of state rebuked the Obama campaign.
Obama's camp launched its own accusations that Clinton's supporters were trying to disenfranchise voters.
“We understand that the Clinton campaign may want to depress turnout because Barack Obama has closed a 20-point gap over the course of this month as voters across the state got to know him," Obama Ohio director Paul Tewes said in a statement. “We will continue to monitor the polls to ensure that all Ohioans who choose to participate in today’s election are able to do so regardless of who they choose to vote for."
Whatever the result of Tuesday night's caucuses, observers expect little to change in terms of the race for delegates who will officially nominate the Democratic candidate at the party's national convention this summer. Obama currently leads by about 100 delegates, and because of proportional allocation and Texas's dual primary and caucus, he is expected to maintain or increase that margin over Clinton.
Newsweek's Jonathan Alter crunched the numbers Tuesday, assuming big wins for Clinton in Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island Tuesday then positing that she goes on to win out every remaining contest (a scenario even her advisers aren't predicting).
So at the end of regulation, Hillary's the nominee, right? Actually, this much-too-generous scenario (which doesn't even account for Texas's weird "pri-caucus" system, which favors Obama in delegate selection) still leaves the pledged-delegate score at 1,634 for Obama to 1,576 for Clinton. That's a 58-delegate lead.
Let's say the Democratic National Committee schedules do-overs in Florida and (heavily African-American) Michigan. Hillary wins big yet again. But the chances of her netting 56 delegates out of those two states would require two more huge margins. (Unfortunately the Slate calculator isn't helping me here.)
So no matter how you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged-delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February. Hillary would then have to convince the uncommitted superdelegates to reverse the will of the people. Even coming off a big Hillary winning streak, few if any superdelegates will be inclined to do so. For politicians to upend what the voters have decided might be a tad, well, suicidal.
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