| | Expert: Iran strike would cause 'serious depression'
 A former CIA agent and expert on Iran offered a grim assessment on Tuesday of American options in dealing with that nation, saying that "sanctions have failed," surgical strikes will lead to unacceptable retaliation against US interests, but a conventional war and invasion would "look like World War III."
Robert Baer is the author of a new book, The Devil We Know: Dealing with the New Iranian Superpower, which argues that Iran has already become the leading power in the Middle East and the United States has no choice but to negotiate with it.
"[The Iranians] called Bush's bluff," Baer told Fox News's Brian Kilmeade. "The Israelis are preparing for an attack. ... Could be early first quarter of next year."
Baer said that Israel has been pressing the US for a go-ahead and support in bombing Iran's nuclear facilities, but "Bush said no" to outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.
"It cannot be a surgical strike," Baer explained, because "they are going to retaliate. They, the Iranians, are going to hit Saudi oil facilities, they're going to hit tankers, they're going to hit our troops in Iraq. ... They're going to take off 17 million barrels of oil a day in the Gulf."
"That'll push us into a serious depression," Baer emphasized. "This is what Bush told Olmert. He said, 'You do that and we're going to feel it in Iraq and Afghanistan.'"
Baer explained further that "conventional war, we could destroy the country in a matter of minutes -- but the point is, it's going to look like World War III."
"I think we have to sit down and see if a deal can be cut," Baer concluded soberly, "because a big war, again, it would be nothing like Iraq."
An earlier book by Baer, See No Evil, was the basis for the movie Syriana, and George Clooney won an Oscar for playing a character based on the former agent.
The central argument of The Devil We Know is that "Iran, far from being a wild-eyed rogue state, is a rational actor -- one skilled in the game of nations. ... For U.S. policy makers, the choices have narrowed. ... We might just find that in allying with Iran, we’ll have increased not just our own security but that of all Middle East nations."
This video is from Fox News, broadcast October 1, 2008.
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