Exit poll data: Negative campaign tactics hurt both camps, one in five made choice in last week
Exit poll data released early Tuesday evening is being analyzed by media outlets and pundits, but one day after posting a questionable story referring to internal Clinton camp polling the Drudge Report is beating everyone to the punch with alleged vote tallies hours before the polls close in Pennsylvania.
Another right-leaning website also posted early results, which happen to be the exact opposite of what Drudge posted.
According to the Associated Press, "One in five voters said they chose their candidate within the final week of the Pennsylvania campaign. About one in 10 said they made up their mind Tuesday."
At ABC News, an analysis by Gary Langer observes, "Despite all the down-to-the-wire campaigning, preliminary exit poll results indicate that nearly eight in 10 Pennsylvania voters made up their minds at least a week ago, and six in 10 decided on their candidate more than a month ago -- a higher number of early deciders than the norm in Democratic primaries to date."
"As far as campaigning, many discern a negative tone — and more blame it on Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., than on Barack Obama, D-Ill.," Langer continues. "Two-thirds of Pennsylvania voters in preliminary exit poll results say Clinton attacked Obama unfairly; fewer, but still about half, also say Obama unfairly attacked Clinton."
Langer adds, "In other primaries to date, similarly, more saw Clinton than Obama as having attacked unfairly. The difference in Pennsylvania, these preliminary results suggest, is that voters there are more critical of both candidates."
At CNN, Bill Schneider reports, "There were more than 150,000 new voters in the Pennsylvania primary and they overwhelmingly voted for Barack Obama, the just released exit polls show. Among first time voters, 60 percent went for Obama while only 38 percent went for Clinton. That discrepancy could keep the race close."
"But in good news for Clinton, among voters who decided in the last week, she bests Obama by 16 points, 58 percent to 42 percent," Schneider adds.
Drudge quick with early 'results'
Meanwhile, Drudge's website has posted the following uncomfirmed data in bright red letters: EXIT POLL DRAMA 5 PM ET: CLINTON 52, OBAMA 48.
Yesterday, the Clinton campaign "categorically" denied a bright-red Drudge Report "flash" claiming that an internal poll showed Clinton with an 11-point lead in the Keystone State.
He said the report did not come from anyone within the campaign and said that no such poll was conducted by the Clinton campaign, which could hardly afford to conduct a poll anyway as it struggles to keep up with Obama's financial juggernaut. (Obama raised twice as much as Clinton last month, and he is outspending her by a two-to-one margin on television ads in Pennsylvania.)
"We categorically deny" the report, Wolfson said during a campaign media conference call Monday. "Anybody that wants to follow up on this, I suggest they get a copy of the poll ... because there is no copy of the poll."
But countering Drudge, National Review's Jim Geraghty at the site's campaign spot blog, tells readers to "hold on to their hats."
"I've gotten the usual word of the exit poll results from one of my usual reliable sources," Geraghty claims. "He notes that Obama traditionally over-performs in the earliest exit polls*, and that he expects the numbers to change as the night wears on - perhaps a reversal. But right now, the exits are saying Obama 52 percent, Clinton 47 percent."
Geraghty adds, "Yes, I know Drudge has the numbers reversed. I checked with my source, and this is what they've got. I have more than one source who hears these numbers, and haven't yet heard from all of them."
Daily Kos points out that at Pollster.com, Mark Blumenthal warns, "I see that at least one publication has posted leaked exit poll results that most will consider a bit surprising. Please keep in mind that these leaked estimates have typically shown a skew in Obama's favor. See the table in my 3/7 National Journal column. Errors on the margin occurred (at this hour) in Obama's favor in 18 or 20 states I looked at, averaging 7 points in Obama's favor."
Continued at Cable networks say race too close to call.
Highlights of preliminary exit poll data in the Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary Tuesday:
FINALLY, THE MAIN EVENT
After a six-week lull since the last Democratic primary, Pennsylvania voters were so eager to participate in the hotly contested battle between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama that one in 10 changed their party registration since the start of 2008 so they could vote Tuesday. The contest was open only to registered Democrats. About half the party-switchers had been registered Republicans, while the rest had been unaffiliated with either party. Another roughly 3 percent were voting for the first time in Pennsylvania.
WHO SHOWED UP
As expected, Pennsylvania's Democratic voters were overwhelmingly white and — as usual in Democratic contests — there were more women than men. About three in 10 were age 65 or over. Nearly half were from families that earned less than $50,000 last year. A quarter had household income of more than $100,000 and about as many reported having a postgraduate degree.
Three in 10 Pennsylvania Democratic voters were union members or had one in their household. And four in 10 had a gun owner in the household.
LOOKS MATTER
About one in five voters said the race of the candidates was among the top factors in their vote. About as many said that about the candidates' gender.
MAKING UP THEIR MINDS
One in five voters said they chose their candidate within the final week of the Pennsylvania campaign. About one in 10 said they made up their mind Tuesday.
ECONOMIC GLOOM
Pennsylvania Democrats had a sour view of the economy — four in 10 said the country is in a serious recession and at least as many called it a moderate recession. Only about one in 10 said the economy is not in recession.
As in earlier primaries, at least half of voters said the economy was the most important issue facing the country. About half as many said Iraq was the top issue. Health care trailed in importance.
From a partial sample of 1,421 Democratic primary voters conducted in 40 precincts across Pennsylvania by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for The Associated Press and television networks.
(with wire reports)
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