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Tight GOP presidential primary begins in Michigan
RAW STORY
Published: Tuesday January 15, 2008

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(Update: Early Michigan exit poll results at bottom

Michigan voters headed to the polls Tuesday in a presidential primary that could prove pivotal for the leading Republican candidates, but has generated less interest on the Democratic side with Hillary Rodham Clinton the only top tier candidate on the ballot.

Snow fell across much of the state, half a foot before noon in some places, threatening to dampen turnout that was already expected to be light.

Outside a Baptist church in Warren, Mike Huckabee was happy to see the freezing temperatures and snowfall, reasoning that his evangelical base would come out to vote when others less committed might not. "That can only be good for us because I think most of our voters are very focused. We hope so, anyway."

The economy has dominated the closely contested GOP race in recent days, with front-runners Mitt Romney and John McCain both pledging to lead a revival for a state and an auto industry ravaged by recession.

Polls showed McCain and Romney in a close race, with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee running third.

Of the three, Romney is most in need of a victory as he looks to restore at least some of the luster lost with defeats in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary. Several associates have suggested the former Massachusetts governor may quit the race unless he prevails.

McCain won the state's primary eight years ago on the strength of independent voters, and hopes for a reprise on Tuesday. He has regained the lead in the national polls that he enjoyed months ago — before his campaign nearly came apart over the summer.

Among the Democrats, Barack Obama and John Edwards pulled their names from ballot after Michigan broke national party rules by moving up its primary date. Their supporters were urging voters to vote for uncommitted, which could leave some delegates free to back Obama or Edwards. Write-in votes won't be counted.

The primary date itself is unusual for Michigan, which typically doesn't hold presidential primaries until February. The date was moved up over the objections of national party leaders to try and give the state more say in the selection of presidential candidates. The move cost Michigan all of its Democratic national convention delegates and half its Republican ones.

State party leaders are confident the delegates eventually will be seated.

Next up for the Democrats were precinct caucuses Saturday in Nevada, where a debate was scheduled for Tuesday night in Las Vegas.

Early Michigan exit poll results

Highlights from preliminary results of exit polling in Michigan's presidential primaries Tuesday for The Associated Press and television networks:

A REPUBLICAN PRIMARY AFTER ALL ...

The last time Michigan had a competitive Republican presidential primary, in 2000, self-described Republican voters were a minority. Tuesday's GOP primary had a much more normal partisan split, with a solid majority of Republicans and far fewer Democrats.

Michigan has open primaries and no registration by party, so voters choose on primary day which partisan contest to vote in. In 2000 with no Democratic race but for an eventual blowout in caucuses three weeks later, many Democrats voted in the Republican primary — totaling 17 percent of that electorate, more than in any other GOP primary exit poll since at least 1992.

On Tuesday there were both Democratic and Republican primaries and though ballot maneuvering left the Democratic side in essence non-competitive, apparently it kept some Democrats from migrating to the Republican contest — where they made up fewer than one in 10 voters. In 2000, Republicans made up only 48 percent of the GOP primary electorate; Tuesday they were two-thirds of it. A quarter of Republican primary voters Tuesday called themselves independent, down from 35 percent eight years ago.

In all, the exit poll indicated seven in 10 voters Tuesday opted to vote in the Republican primary. Among those who did vote on the Democratic side, more than three in four called themselves Democrats.

IT'S THE ECONOMY ... AT LEAST IN MICHIGAN

Given four choices, half of Michigan Republican primary voters picked the economy as the most important issue facing the nation — compared to just 26 percent in the Iowa GOP caucuses and 31 percent in the New Hampshire Republican primary. Its auto industry ailing, Michigan has the highest unemployment rate in the nation. Among the other choices, one in five picked Iraq, one in seven said immigration and one in 10 called terrorism the country's most important issue.

On a different question, only three in 10 Michigan GOP voters rated the nation's economy excellent or good, compared to half of Republican primary voters in New Hampshire.

ON OTHER ISSUES ...

Among Michigan Republican primary voters:

_ six in 10 say abortion should be illegal in most or all cases

_ a similar number approve of the war in Iraq

_ a little more than half say it should be higher priority for the next president to reduce the budget deficit rather than cut taxes

THAT DEMOCRATIC NON-CONTEST ...

Barack Obama and John Edwards withdrew from the ballot amid a dispute over seating Michigan's Democratic delegates. "Uncommitted" was an option on the ballot against Hillary Rodham Clinton and several lower-tier candidates. Younger voters, college graduates, blacks and voters in bigger cities were more likely than other groups to vote uncommitted.

And if Democrats had a full ballot to choose from, nearly three-quarters of those who voted uncommitted told exit pollsters they would have voted for Obama and many of the rest said Edwards. Of course those results are only among those who were motivated to go to the Democratic primary and vote uncommitted.

(with wire reports)



 
 


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