Abramoff fallout has lobbying industry close to crisis 
With President Bush's promise to veto earmark-laden legislation that emerges from Congress this year, lobbyists who built their businesses around securing targeted federal dollars for their clients worry they may not survive.
"There is a constant drumbeat that people need to start listening to, and it doesn’t seem to be going away,” former Rep. Henry Bonilla (R-Texas), an Appropriations Committee veteran who is now a lobbyist, told Roll Call. “People are wondering what kind of future is out there for firms that are focused entirely on appropriations."
The subscription-only Capitol Hill newspaper reports that firms up and down K Street are reevaluating their business models now that Bush said in his State of the Union address that he would enforce a 50 percent cut in earmarks with his veto pen. House Republicans also have adopted stricter standards over the spending.
Trouble has been building for earmark lobbyists for years since separate scandals involving earmark improprieties sent lobbyist Jack Abramoff and former Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham (R-CA) to jail.
The crackdown on targeted spending projects secreted into appropriations bills seems to be reaching a head, and one lobbyist told Roll Call the industry is "pretty close" to a crisis.
"There’s so much uncertainty across the board," the unnamed lobbyist told the paper's Tory Newmyer. "Last year was tough, and the threat still continues."
While the reforms are seen as thinning the herd of appropriations lobbyists, the industry is hardly in danger of complete collapse.
"Ironically, the more they raise the bar, the more folks like us who are really good are valued," lobbyist Rich Gold told Newmyer. Gold heads the lobbying practice at Holland & Knight, where he said business has grown at least 10 percent for the last two years.
Democrats made earmark reform a primary focus after taking over Congress last year, and their focus on increased transparency has resulted in slightly fewer lobbying contracts on budge/appropriations issues -- 1,157 last year compared to 1,259 in 2005, according to a CQ Moneyline analysis Newmyer cites.
As long as lawmakers continue to rely on voters who like to see federal dollars funded to their hometowns, though, earmarks won't disappear completely. But the new focus has thinned the herd of lobbyists seeking those dollars and has sent them looking for "the next big thing," Steve Ellis of earmark critic Taxpayers for Common Sense told The Hill last month.
"The earmark market," he said, "has popped."
Correction: An earlier version of this article incorrectly characterized the findings of a CQ Moneyline analysis. It measured lobbying contracts on budget or appropriations issues, not earmarks
 
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