AP: Military is running out of troops to maintain Iraq surge
 As predictions intensify that next month's White House-produced progress report on Iraq could push for a continuation to President Bush's troop surge, the Associated Press reports the military simply does not have enough troops to maintain its current levels in Iraq much longer.
"The Army's 38 available combat units are deployed, just returning home or already tapped to go to Iraq, Afghanistan or elsewhere, leaving no fresh troops to replace five extra brigades that President Bush sent to Baghdad this year," Lolita C. Baldor reports for AP, based on interviews and military documents.
Without enough troops to sustain current troop levels, the Pentagon will face some painful decisions if President Bush argues for a continuation of the surge. It can accelerate deployments of National Guard units, break the military's pledge to keep soldiers in Iraq for 15 months or less or reverse its commitment to give troops a year at home with their families before returning them to a war zone.
"For a war-fatigued nation and a Congress bent on bringing troops home, none of those is desirable," the AP reports.
Army Gen. David Petraeus, the top US commander in Iraq, will report to Congress next month on whether the surge has sufficiently reduced violence in the country and whether the increased security is fomenting political progress. America's ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, will appear with Petraeus for testimony Sept. 10-11, but the report the two officials are to deliver is being written by the White House.
Petraeus is expected to recommend removing some troops from parts of Iraq where violence has decreased, but some warn such a strategy will just lead to a reversal of any progress that has been made.
"The longer that you keep American forces there, the longer you give this process to solidify and to make sure that it's not going to slide back," Frederick Kagan, an American Enterprise Institute analyst who recently returned from an eight-day visit to Iraq, told the AP. "The sooner you take them out, the more you run the risk that enemies will come in and try to disrupt."
The number of US troops in Iraq is at its highest level since the war's start in 2003, with 162,00 there now. As more troops rotate into the country this fall, that number is expected to rise to 171,000.
Speaking to reporters on Friday, the No. 2 commander in Iraq, Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno, said he favored continuing the troop buildup as long as possible, and predicted it could last until this time next year without a change in strategy.
Before Bush announced his surge strategy in January, Odierno said it could be another "two or three years" until American and Iraqi troops took the upper hand in their battle with militant insurgents and foreign terrorists.
The AP notes that Petraeus and other military commanders have said the security situation is improving in Iraq, and that will allow for troop reductions by next summer.
"Still, Petraeus and other military leaders have warned against drawing down too quickly," the AP reports. "In fact, an upbeat progress report in September may solidify arguments that additional troops should stay longer to ensure that positive changes stick."
If President Bush decides to maintain troop levels, he may have to modify current military policies by extending deployments or calling up National Guard troops quicker.
"According to military officials, some soldiers in Iraq are hearing that it may not be wise to pack their bags to come home when their 15-month tour is up. But to date, Pentagon officials, including Defense Secretary Robert Gates, have said they have no plans to extend those tours," according to AP.
"National Guard officials are bracing for a new round of Guard deployments and a move to decrease their time at home between tours despite announced plans to give the citizen soldiers five years off for every one year served."
Over the next five years, the Army is adding 65,000 active-duty soldiers with the goal of increasing its strength to 547,000 members by 2012. The extra troops will comprise 10 extra combat brigades, bringing the number to 48.
Barack Obama, a Democratic presidential candidate, said the AP article shows the US never should have invaded Iraq and called for an end to the war.
“The Associated Press story today confirms what has long been clear – the catastrophic decision to wage war in Iraq has finally stretched our troops to the breaking point. It's a shameful disservice to them and a serious threat to our national security," the Illinois senator said in a parepared statement released by his campaign. "We know our troops will always answer the call to service, but we must issue that call responsibly. We need predictable rotations, we need to deploy troops at an appropriate state of readiness, and we must only send them to battle if we define their mission and define success. We must end this war in Iraq and begin bringing our troops home so that we can rebuild our military’s strength and confront the very real threats to our security that still exist.”
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