‘We have already entered peak oil,’ IEA source reportedly claims

By Stephen C. Webster
Monday, November 9th, 2009 -- 9:03 pm
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burning%20oil%20rig We have already entered peak oil, IEA source reportedly claimsTwo International Energy Agency whistleblowers have come forward with startling claims about the world's supply of crude oil, according to a report published Tuesday.

"We have [already] entered the 'peak oil' zone," an unnamed former IEA official told British newspaper The Guardian. "I think that the situation is really bad."

A second whistleblower reportedly claimed that the IEA's current figures are inflated due to pressure from the United States and a pervasive fear that the announcement of falling oil output in the future could cause markets to respond with panic.

The claims come on the same day the IEA plans to publish its annual "World Energy Outlook" report for 2009.

"Many inside the organisation believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90m to 95m barrels a day would be impossible but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further," one of the IEA sources reportedly told the paper. "And the Americans fear the end of oil supremacy because it would threaten their power over access to oil resources."

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The agency reported in its 2008 World Energy Outlook that a field-by-field analysis of production trends revealed "that decline rates are likely to rise significantly in the long term, from an average of 6.7% today to 8.6% in 2030."

The whistleblowers see things differently.

"The IEA in 2005 was predicting oil supplies could rise as high as 120m barrels a day by 2030 although it was forced to reduce this gradually to 116m and then 105m last year," one of the sources claimed. "The 120m figure always was nonsense but even today's number is much higher than can be justified and the IEA knows this."

In a 2008 interview with Fatih Birol, chief economist at the IEA, Guardian environment writer George Monbiot reported that the IEA had expected peak oil output to be reached in a decade or two.

"In terms of non-Opec [countries outside the big oil producers' cartel]," Birol reportedly said, "we are expecting that in three, four years' time the production of conventional oil will come to a plateau, and start to decline. In terms of the global picture, assuming that Opec will invest in a timely manner, global conventional oil can still continue, but we still expect that it will come around 2020 to a plateau as well, which is, of course, not good news from a global-oil-supply point of view."

The 2008 World Energy Outlook suggested peak oil would be reached in 2030.

The prediction that peak oil production was approaching in 2020 was enough to "scare the pants off" Monbiot, considering the predicted implications of a global energy crunch in just over a decade. However, if the allegations by The Guardian's whistleblowers are indeed true and peak oil has been reached, dark days loom for the global economy.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the agency is not expected to announce the arrival at such a dramatic conclusion. Instead, the 2009 report due out Tuesday will predict slower growth in demand for oil, the Journal reported.

Reuters added: "While the Paris-based IEA has repeatedly warned that a lack of investment could lead to a strain on supply, it maintains that there is enough oil in the ground."

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Story comments are below...

  • Christopher Robin
    No need to worry about that, even if it were true! The Copenhagen Treaty, due to be signed in December, once actually enforced, will bring the planet's use of oil down in leaps and bounds. And there is not much you can do about it, is there?
  • woodgas
    A chevy 350 ci V8 can give you 40 KW of power using biomass as fuel if you hook a gasifier up to it. Producer gas ran a million vehicles during WW2. Consider looking into this green fuel that turns trash into energy with little pollution. And call me crazy but it's the age of Aquarius and water is going to be the fuel of the future, they can't suppress the technology forever. On Ebay you can buy a welder for $6K that consumes less than 4 KW (less than a clothes dryer) and turns water into HHO to power a torch that will cut through 8 inches of steel, it will also burn underwater and the emissions are pure water. It's all about Stanley A. Meyer and his water powered VW dune buggy that got almost 150 mpg of water (salt, tap, melted snow) little kiddies! But for now there is this: http://woodygasifier.com/
  • farang
    "And the Americans fear the end of oil supremacy because it would threaten their power over access to oil resources."

    We all hear about how America, with only 5% of the world's population uses 25% of it's oil. What is less publicized is how the US navy is the largest user of Diesel fuel in the world: 50% of the US total. Combine that with the USAF use of jet fuel, and you start to get a clearer picture of why the US military had Afghanistan ringed with troops BEFORE the "terrorist attacks" on 9/11/01.

    And why Exxon-Mobil just received control of one of the largest oil fileds in iraq...and why Karzai, the former Union 76 exec ended up as America's puppet president in Afghanistan. For control of the pipeline the Taliban would not agree to give us...and how 8curiously* one of the CIA hand-picked agitators, Tim Osman aka Osama bib-Laden, an associate of George herbert Walker Bush, ended up as our modern day version of Emmanuel Goldstein.

    It will one day dawn on the peasants of the USA how they were manipulated and duped by the Military/Industrial/Corporate Complex to sacrifice their lives and standard of living through the military coup of 9/11/01.

    Now be good little serfs, and wave your flags and "give thanks" to all the illegal occupiers of Iraq and Afghanistan, the illegal murderers of Pakistanis, and the agitators itching to steal Iran's oil that you label "Freedom Fighters", aka the US military. Watch you NFL and "praise the soldiers" "keeping you safe", you blithering fools.
  • thx1138a
    Here, here. Well said.
    .
    You have heard before that "Al-Qaeda" roughly translates into "the base," but were you aware that "Ana raicha Al Qaeda" is arabic colloquial for "I'm going to the toilet"? Would hardened terrorists hell bent on the destruction of the west name their organization after a euphemism for taking a shit?

    ...top ranking CIA operatives admit that al-Qaeda is a complete and total fabrication by the CIA. They plainly state that NO SUCH ORGANIZATION HAS EVER EXISTED AT ANY TIME. The fantasy was spun in January 2001 by Jamal al Fadl, a Sudanese who had been with Bin Laden in the early 1990s. Jamal al Fadl stole money from Bin Laden, and then sought protection in the USA. The FBI and CIA paid him hundreds of thousands of dollars to create the al-Qaeda fiction.

    Omar al-Baghdadi, the supposed leader of an al-Qaeda-affiliated group in Iraq, was declared non-existent by US military officials, who say he is a fictional character created to give an Iraqi face to a foreign-run terrorist group.
    .
  • thx1138a
    .
    Peak Oil and Global Climate Change. Absolutely. PNAC, the MIC, and the Corporatist Oligarchs saw this all coming and decided that now was the time to make their move -- '01 and the onset of the new millennium . 9/11. Afghanistan. Iraq. With military-guarded pipelines throughout. Rollback of constitutional rights. Signing statements. Centralization of power. Nationalized Wall Street, Car Companies, and Health Care. Burgeoning defense budgets. Iranian Boogie Men. PERMANENT WAR.

    Selling nuclear secrets on the black market to justify huge military spending to counter-act these same emerging nuclear powers our spooks enabled. Creeping militarism throughout civilian society ["Citizen Soldier" by 3DoorsDown, Military Flyovers for all Nationally telecast anthems, Privatized military via Blackwater entrenched in the Pentagon and deployed both foreign (Iraq/Afghan) and domestically (Katrina)]. Power is never given, but always taken. And the MIC and MerecnariesINC have taken all the necessary steps to usurp/seize power wherever possible.

    The demonizing of our external enemies and the undermining of our once-respected internal institutions: the MSM, corporations, and the political machine -- so that we will no longer trust any of them. As a result, frightened Americans will turn to the military as a bastion of security. The legal justifications of warrantless spying, illegal arrest, and indefinite imprisonment. The legalization of torture. Bush's purchase of 100K acres above the world's largest fresh-water aquifer in Paraguay where war criminals will be safe.

    This isn't the beginning of the end, but it certainly is the end of the beginning. The end of the democratic experiment. "May you live in interesting times" --Old Chinese Curse
    .
  • jaguar1024
    Uh-huh. Is this article ten years old? I recall 1999 when the 'peak oil is now' scare was used.
  • Savantster
    .
    then you're remembering things that hadn't happened. Peak Oil has been talked about for 30 or 40 years, but not by the mainstream... you might have heard about it in 1999 (only a decade ago) but that doesn't invalidate the concept or science.

    If I tell you a teetering wall is "going to fall", is it some how invalid that I tell you 10 minutes later that its "falling", then 10 minutes later "you're about to be hit by that falling wall", then 10 minutes later I look over your squished body? Will you refuse to move because I told you long before the wall actually fell that it was going to fall?

    I will never cease to be amazed (more correctly, sickened) by the rampant ignorance the general public proudly displays. pathetic.
  • thelonegunman
    THIS is what the illegal US invasion of iraq was all about: the bushies KNEW we had already hit peak oil and we're invading to secure resources in order to prop up their corporatist masters and allow them (and their friends) time to exit the markets (while looting the US treasury and transferring all their losses and debt onto the taxpayer via "bailouts")...
  • jwkessler
    Peak oil isn't just about oil running out. It's about oil becoming more and more expensive to extract. There are huge reserves locked up in oil shale deposits for instance, but getting to it is both expensive and environmentally destructive. A lot of our reserves may never be practically tapped.

    As the price of oil increases, alternatives will begin to become more and more competitive.

    Personally I would like to see us move away from oil as an energy resource as quickly as possible and preserve what's left for other uses. For instance, plastics and many other common products are made from petroleum. Once we burn it all how will we continue to make that stuff? Agriculture is heavily dependent on fertilizers and pesticides that are made from petroleum. How will we feed the world without those products?

    This is a huge problem but there is a lot of potential for the solutions to make us even stronger if we have the will and foresight to act while we can. Unfortunately we are humans and I'm not at all confident we will act in time.
  • Savantster
    .
    "Once we burn it all how will we continue to make that stuff?"

    plant oils. Hemp comes to mind..
  • thx1138a
    Stoopid Humans. We are surrounded by infinite energy. Wind, solar, wave, geothermal. Yes, 9/11 was just the beginning of the endgame power grab by the robber barons in the know about Peak Oil and Global Climate Change. Just imagine, it only took a few thousand years for us bipeds to screw up a billion-year paradise. And after a couple hundred years of food and water wars we'll finally die off to a meager, sustainable population that can't do much harm. Yum. Einstein, Beethoven, and Buddha aside, most humans are scum -- "just a virus with shoes". Good riddance to a bad phylum.
  • truthy
    Peak oil, seriously? Do you have any idea who funds these reports? Governments. Oh yeah, Mars is warming too because of all the SUV's driving around up there. Put your tin-foil hats back on and see if you can channel Al Gore.
  • Savantster
    .
    stupid is as stupid does.. and you does a LOT it seems.
  • theghostpony
    What. You can't make your point politely? I'll bet you stalk your neighbors at home too.
  • Savantster
    .
    not every post/person deserves a polite response. I'm pretty good at telling them apart and when a denier says "mars" and "tinfoil hat" and some quip about Gore, they aren't worth being polite to.. in fact, they are the ones content to kill me via proxy and their abuse of the planet.

    you're borderline. Not sure what the quip about stalking neighbors is supposed to mean, it's pretty vapid.. and you offer nothing other than to point out you're not happy with my post. I'll just watch for your moniker now and try to get a feeling for where you come from.. then I'll decide if I should continue being polite to you or not. .... respect is earned, not a right.
    .
  • thomas jefferson
    It's gonna be a fun ride to the bottom! Weeee!!!

    Right off the bat, the US could cut 1/4 of it's energy use without any pain what so ever, but that would mean joe moron citizen would have to actually shut off the lights when not in use. Wow, how about that.

    We could go back to a 55 mph speed on the highways, but that would also mean that jack rabbit start speed demon joe, I only drive fast, moron citizen wouldn't have "the freedom to drive as fast and for as long as I want!!"

    Sigh.

    That's just for starters, but alas, instead of actually preparing for the future, like we should have done 30 years ago, oh wait, what was that? Carter you say? He put solar panels on the WH and told us to drive slower and wear a sweater instead of turning up the heat, and actually started investing in alt fuels, but was then destroyed over night by moron reagan? Oh that's right, I forgot.

    We get the elected officials we pay for, we get the kind of government we ignore, we piss and moan over nothing being done.

    YAYYYY! USA!! USA!! USA!! USA!! USA!!

    Racing our way to the bottom!!!
  • thx1138a
    .
    Blame it on progress. Societal evolution. It happens to all celestial civilizations. And there are billions of them, on billions of other planets, just like this one.

    Ancient cultures were more spiritual by necessity. Maya, Incas, Ogalla. Lived in harmony with each other and mother earth.
    Good times.

    Then along comes the Midieval Warming Period. Agriculture. Population Explosion. The Scientific Method. Guttenberg. Internal combustion engine. The Atomic age. Bummer.

    So now the real rat race begins. Will you be saved by technology or destroyed by it? SO are, it's not lookin' good. We're seeing the effects now. Humans are a very primitive race. No biggie though. There are billions of planets just like this one -- always have been, always will be. Some make it, some don't. Ain't no thing.
    .
  • DHS2020
    Maybe Mike Rupert was right...
  • jenniferleej
    We need to adapt. Take a look at this article The Great Transition: http://www.scribd.com/doc/21656220/The-Great-Tr...
  • reveille
    The saddest thing is that as civilization implodes, 99.9% of the population won't understand why. I don't blame them, it took me hundreds of hours of reading to see the state of the human condition for what it really is. "Abstract: Petroleum geologists have known for 50 years that global oil production would "peak" and begin its inevitable decline within a decade of the year 2000. Moreover, no renewable energy systems have the potential to generate more than a tiny fraction of the power now being generated by fossil fuels. In short, the end of oil signals the end of civilization, as we know it." - Jay Hanson
  • thx1138a
    .
    You got that right. Adapt or perish. 99.99% of the species that once lived on this planet are now extinct. Mankind is no exception. We are surrounded by infinite energy. Wind, solar, wave, geothermal. But we just don't have what it takes as a species to survive. No biggie. Bring on the next developing life form and let them take a shot. The universe favors no particular life form, just life in general -- since life is inherent to existence itself. There are billions of other planetary civilizations that are thriving. We just happen to be one of the losers. (Despite all the "We're #1 Baloney!" Ha!)
    .
  • Savantster
    .
    "as we know it" being the operative phrase. We can rebuild our world to be sustainable, we just have to change our value system from one where money=importance to one that favors humans living comfortable lives. Money and consumerism are the problems.. we're conditioned to want crap we don't need and your value to society is only measured by how much money you make someone else. It's a pretty sick world; redesigning it is a good thing.
  • Gonzo
    Anyone believing this farticle, can they apply for the Bridge that I have for Sale please?

    Peak Oil but no Nuclear Reactors getting built instead yea olde wind mills and the mirror tricks are being sold as energy provisions of the Copenhagen.

    Stuff the neo liberals/conservative power games.

    No one is left buying this shit other than a bunch of deluded Greens whom as yet have not realised; they are the tools of the establishment now, and green is no longer the color of people.
  • Savantster
    .
    we'll start building those reactors in your back yard first, ok? You ok with that?

    nuclear is very dangerous in a "for profit" world, we know that. and it still requires non-renewble fuel and only gives us electricity.. that also means we need electric transportation and you guys are fighting that, too.

    "Gonzo" is right.
  • truthy
    How about France? They seem to be doing okay with their Nuclear energy. Creating more than they can use and exporting much of it. We haven't built a nuclear power plant for years. The all knowing government regulators make it impossible and not profitable.
  • Savantster
    .
    you're missing the point where France is "socialist" and has massive regulations on businesses. In America, where we're trying to get "regulationless free trade" put in, cutting corners for profit is expected, which causes failures and accidents. I don't want the cheapest contractor out there building reactors, do you? .. but that's what we'll get.

    If you want reactors for energy, then strip corporations of their supposed person hood and regulate the shit out of things so companies stop abusing the public. Be more like France.. including Universal Health Care, and we can talk about reactors.. if you want to keep your "profits are all that matter" mentality, then you aren't putting any reactor anywhere near me. Period.
  • ben
    The comments about wind and solar energy here are disturbing. I support developing both forms of energy, BUT YOU CAN'T PUT EITHER IN YOUR CAR. If this article is correct and peak oil is NOW, it means we have to revamp our ENTIRE CIVILIZATION. Like, wind and solar sure, but also NO MORE SUBURBS, because they don't make sense without cheap cars, and we can't have affordable cars in a peak oil scenario until we switch to electric cars. The logistics are staggering. In the abstract, the problems are solvable. However, what worries me most is that we're not in the abstract, we're in the real world with no political leadership and politicians who think about next terms corporate profits. It will get much worse before it gets better.
  • Christopher Robin
    You can put them in the car - in the electric car and charge it at home. If only GM hadn't scrapped them...
  • thx1138a
    .
    Nonsense. Public transport. Wind, solar, and geothermal are perfect for that. We live in a collective, and should start acting like one. But it's probably too late. The robber barons sold us on the "every man for himself" capitalist crap too long ago for us to make the change now. Plus, the damage (to the planet and civilization) is already done.

    And yes, it will get plenty worse -- but it ain't gonna get any better from here on out. Wait till the food and water wars start. But we probably won't live to see those. Just the energy wars, which have already started. Oh well, mankind is only one of billions of intelligent life forms populating the universe. One less biped life form won't change things a bit.
    .
  • Savantster
    .
    then we change how cars work.. by making them use something you CAN get from wind and solar.. electricity. Duh?

    you are correct, we need to rethink our world and rebuild it into something more sustainable.

    the bit that is the broken cog in all of this is not also understanding that we need to leave the concept of private ownership of natural resources and walk away from money all together. We can't make large scale changes when "cost" is factored in because cost = profit in that paradigm, and there is no profit in giving the planet sustainable anything.
  • magdyhalim
    after 17 years of studying the subject of the end of civilization,I made a blog about it:
    magdyhalim.blogspot.com
    please have a look
    Thanks
  • magdyhalim
    after 17 years of studying the subject of the end of civilization,I made a blog about it:
    magdyhalim.blogspot.com
    please have a look
    Thanks
  • surgethis
    So now we finally hear the real reason why the power elite fabricated the 911 attack so they could invade Iraq where the oil supply had been on lock down since the criminal Bush father trumped up the Gulf war. You think it just the Financial institutions ... remember the oil companies meeting with Cheney to go over the Iraq oil fields. International war criminals .... they have delegitimizing public outrage through the "teabaggers"so anyone that might actually go after the real criminals can be labeled as nuts.
  • starvapor
    Two unnamed whistleblowers, who's expertise is not reported, that come forward with unsubstantiated evidence, is hardly solid enough reporting to be credible regarding such an important issue.... One of the ways markets can be manipulated is with planted stories. This could be one.
  • farang
    Well, that is true...but it substantiates prior projections by named experts that named this the time Peak Oil would raise it's ugly head.

    If you feel this is "manipulation", why tell everyone? Why not put your money where your mouth is, and invest in Oil Futures, starvapor?

    You mfhgt turn out to be fabulously wealthy...if you are correct.

    Frankly, it seems whether Peak Oil is true or "manipulation", either way, Oil Futures will pay off...think about it.
  • Savantster
    .
    Whistleblowers, by definition, are those from the inside with the know who are telling you the "official story" is a lie, a willful lie.

    and all this deception only matters because people are trying to get something.. money.. without money, 90% of all crime would simply vanish... including all the deceit going on all over.

    thevenusproject and thezeitgeistmovement .. good stuff.
  • damixaustex
    Well, back in the good ol days, you could just threaten to attack Iran to get the price to pop.

    Not, it's gotta be a little more creative to be effective.
  • LongRider
    One of the best things that could happen to the world and human beings at this stage in the game would be for us to run out of carbon crude oil..
  • Steven
    Uhh yeah sure, thanks for the disinfo. Wow, would you look at that, peak oil and man-made global warming all at once..such a weird coincidence.
  • Savantster
    .
    if by "all at once" you mean "been warned for over 30 years", then ok. Otherwise, your ignorance is showing..
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