Firm warns: ‘Peak gold’ likely now, prices could become volatile

By Stephen C. Webster
Sunday, November 15th, 2009 -- 6:41 pm
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goldbars20090916 Firm warns: Peak gold likely now, prices could become volatileSince starting its slide in 2000, the world-wide production of gold has finally hit "terminal decline," according to reports citing Barrick Gold, the largest gold miner in the world.

In an interview with The Daily Telegraph during a London gold conference, Barrick President Aaron Regent said that one could argue that Earth has reached "peak gold," as new supplies of the ore are increasingly difficult to find.

"The supply crunch has helped push gold to an all-time high, reaching $1,118 an ounce at one stage yesterday," the paper noted. "The key driver over recent days has been the move by India's central bank to soak up half of the gold being sold by the International Monetary Fund. It is the latest sign that the rising powers of Asia and the commodity bloc are growing wary of Western paper money and debt."

The report continued: "China has quietly doubled holdings to 1,054 tonnes and is thought to be adding gradually on price dips, creating a market floor. Gold remains a tiny fraction of its $2.3 trillion in foreign reserves."

However, in an interview with The Financial Times, Regent cautioned that gold is still susceptible to sell-offs.

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"Mr Regent said he expected the gold price to generally trend upward, supported by weakening currencies, rising investment demand, and tightening supply," according to the Times. "But he said the price could be highly volatile."

Reuters added: "'There is no reason why we should expect gold not to sell off,' the paper quoted Aaron Regent as saying. 'It is a commodity like any other.' Gold XAU= shot up to another record at $1,121.60 an ounce on Thursday as a weaker U.S. dollar lifted the metal's appeal as an alternative investment to currencies. Bullion has now renewed record highs for six out of the past eight sessions. But Regent said forecasts of the long-term gold price falling below $900 an ounce were 'on the light side', adding that bullion remained susceptible to sell-offs despite its bullish outlook."

Barrick is currently in the process of closing its hedge book, generally considered to mean the company is betting on the price of gold to rise. Hedging is a method gold traders use to protect profits from price volatility.

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Story comments are below...

  • Casmige
    Re:- haljett 1 week ago
    "I see that gold is sitting high at $1,134.70. Will it go higher? My thinking has been that we'll see a pull back and then it will search out $1,200 before the year end."

    Was up past 1190.00 Today (11/25)
    Settles down to 1188.60
    I think that your *Thinking* is straight spot on spot PLUS a premium!!

    RE:-educateyourself123

    Cheers for the outline.
    The Salted Gold Bars was cited in a report from the Golden Jackass on 11/20 without ANY Reporting on the lamestream media....not a whisper.

    It's even being ignored by the fundamental Fringe reporting agencies & Kitco wouldn't elaborate even on it.

    I see it boding quite well for Bullion Coins...except that I am eerily cautious that there is a push for the little guy to accumulate gold bullion wherein due to national & public protective interests....*they* will seize & confiscate any Gold Bullion holdings (AS FDR did in the '30's) so as to BACK a Newly issued Currency & restore FAITH & TRUST in the same.....then the whole ball of trickery & alchemy will begin again...with those in the know having already stuffed their coffers adequately & accordingly.
  • Yes, there is definitely some volatility in the spot price of gold right now. But I think in part that is because of the uncertainty that so many feel in relation to the what the governments of the world are doing to inflate things that are quickly losing money because of bad investments and greed. So people are seeking security in gold but the there are those who are using the opportunity to buy on the dips and sell on the highs to immediately profit from the uncertainty. Long term sill looks like the price will increase in my opinion. I do think that there are some in powerful positions that don't want the gold to get into a tear off run to record setting highs when inflation is thrown into the mix. So there's probably some working at suppressing the price.

    Right now, checking the free tracking tool at http://www.learcapital.com/exactprice , I see that gold is sitting high at $1,134.70. Will it go higher? My thinking has been that we'll see a pull back and then it will search out $1,200 before the year end.
  • Isn't gold's scarcity throughout the ages exactly why it has always been so valuable? This just sounds like one of those phony press releases like the ones that say that oil prices are going to go up because a hurricane has been spotted within 300 miles of a refinery.
  • lordbalto
    Gold is not a "foreign reserve." It is the opposite of a foreign reserve. The Chinese are accumulating it because they no longer trust foreign (US) reserves (dollars).
  • douvie
    Sounds like a Glenn Beck sponsorship plant.
  • jimbo92107
    Bull. Gold can be gotten from seawater. Just a matter of how badly you want it.
  • Whatever. My art is also secretly "at peak" so you had better invest before the price goes up. Check out my website for the steal of the century - once the supply of my art starts to dwindle, countries will be trading it right and left, and you'll be left out.

    No, I'm not kidding. You can trust me, I know what I'm talking about. I wouldn't dare try to manipulate prices on a commodity I'm pushing.
  • educateyourself123
    Bricks of gold found gutted and filled with tungsten - http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1258049769.php

    Roughly 15 years ago – during the Clinton Administration [think Robert Rubin, Sir Alan Greenspan and Lawrence Summers] – between 1.3 and 1.5 million 400 oz tungsten blanks were allegedly manufactured by a very high-end, sophisticated refiner in the USA [more than 16 Thousand metric tonnes]. Subsequently, 640,000 of these tungsten blanks received their gold plating and WERE shipped to Ft. Knox and remain there to this day. I know folks who have copies of the original shipping docs with dates and exact weights of “tungsten” bars shipped to Ft. Knox.
    The balance of this 1.3 million – 1.5 million 400 oz tungsten cache was also plated and then allegedly “sold” into the international market.

    Apparently, the global market is literally “stuffed full of 400 oz salted bars”.

    “LONDON, April 14, 2004 (Reuters) - NM Rothschild & Sons Ltd., the London-based unit of investment bank Rothschild [ROT.UL], will withdraw from trading commodities, including gold, in London as it reviews its operations, it said on Wednesday.”

    Interestingly, GATA’s Bill Murphy speculated about this back in 2004;

    “Why is Rothschild leaving the gold business at this time my colleagues and I conjectured today? Just a guess on my part, but suspect:”

    *SOMETHING IS AMISS. THEY KNOW A BIG GOLD SCANDAL IS COMING AND THEY WANT NO PART OF IT. …”

    Coincidentally [or perhaps, not?], GLD Began Trading 11/12/2004



    In light of what has occurred – regarding the Gold ETF, GLD – after reviewing their prospectus yet again, it becomes pretty clear that GLD was established to purposefully deflect investment dollars away from legitimate gold pursuits and to create a stealth, cesspool / catch-all, slush-fund and a likely destination for many of these “salted tungsten bars” where they would never see the light of day – hidden behind the following legalese “shield” from the law:

    The Fed Has Already Been Caught Lying



    Liberty Coin’s Patrick Heller recently wrote,



    Earlier this year, the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA), filed a second Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request with the Federal Reserve System for documents from 1990 to date having to do with gold swaps, gold swapped, or proposed gold swaps.

    On Aug. 5, The Federal Reserve responded to this FOIA request by adding two more documents to those disclosed to GATA in April 2008 from the earlier FOIA request. These documents totaled 173 pages, many parts of which were redacted (covered up to omit sections of text). The Fed's response also noted that there were 137 pages of documents not disclosed that were alleged to be exempt from disclosure.

    GATA appealed this determination on Aug. 20. The appeal asked for more information to substantiate the legitimacy of the claimed exemptions from disclosure and an explanation on why some documents, such as one posted on the Federal Reserve Web site that discusses gold swaps, were not included in the Aug. 5 document release.

    In a Sept. 17, 2009, letter on Federal Reserve System letterhead, Federal Reserve governor Kevin M. Warsh completely denied GATA's appeal. The entire text of this letter can be examined at http://www.gata.org/files/GATAFedResponse-09-17....

    The first paragraph on the third page is the most revealing. Warsh wrote, "In connection with your appeal, I have confirmed that the information withheld under exemption 4 consists of confidential commercial or financial information relating to the operations of the Federal Reserve Banks that was obtained within the meaning of exemption 4. This includes information relating to swap arrangements with foreign banks on behalf of the Federal Reserve System and is not the type of information that is customarily disclosed to the public. This information was properly withheld from you."

    This paragraph will likely be one of the most important news stories of the year.

    Though not stated in plain English, this paragraph is an admission that the Fed has in the past and may now be engaged in trading gold swaps. Warsh's letter contradicts previous Fed statements to GATA denying that it ever engaged in gold swaps during the time period between Jan. 1, 1990 and the present.



    [Perhaps most importantly], this was GATA's second FOIA request to the Federal Reserve on the issue of gold swaps. The 173 pages of documents received for the 2009 FOIA request all pre-dated the 2007 FOIA request, which means they should have been released in the response to the earlier FOIA request. This establishes a likelihood that the Federal Reserve has failed to adequately search or disclose relevant documents. Further, the Fed response admitted that it had copies of relevant records that originally appeared on the Treasury Department Web site, but failed to include them in its response.



    Now that Federal Reserve governor Warsh has admitted that the Fed has lied in the past about the Fed’s involvement with gold. It should now be very clear to everyone why the Fed is lying and the true nature of what they are hiding / withholding.
  • jjackferguson
    I woulf prefer FOOLS GOLD to Bernackes economic solutions. The poor devil is doing the best hr can running around the correl and wondering why do fools think i know what I am doing. When I was a kiid the neighboring rancher had a correl full of jack asses. They were nice to look at but just stood around and every now and then they would bray. Reminds me of Alan Gteenspan who would stand up asnd bray now and then.
  • iconoclasm
    Now that'll drive the price up! Let the profiteering begin!
  • starvapor
    You can't get more obvious that having someone from the largest gold mining operation in the world saying we're at "peak gold" in order to manipulate the gold market to their advantage.
  • tjfxh
    With gold over 1000 an oz, watch how much supply comes online. It costs $400 an oz to extract now, and it is not profitable to mine less accessible sources. There will be plenty of supply as prices rise, since it will be profitable to mine where recovery cost is high as long it is sufficiently under the market price to make it worthwhile.
  • BAC520
    No more gold standard for currency? Now what!! The dollar will have to be backed by pure fiction and violence!!!
  • mledford27613
    It has been like that for years. Imaginative backing and wars.
  • marxymcliberalson
    The Dollar is doomed....

    June 30 U.S. Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) announces on FoxNews that China wants to buy $80 Billion in gold.

    On July 14, Greenlight Capital, the hedge fund that had been the largest shareholder in GLD (the largest gold exchange traded fund), revealed that it had disposed of its entire holding of 4.2 million shares of GLD (effectively about 420,000 ounces of gold worth almost $400 million) and replaced it all with physical gold.

    On July 20 Chen Yuan, the chairman of China Development Bank said, "I think we should not go to America's Wall Street, but should look more to places with natural (gold) and energy resources."

    On July 23, the COMEX (Wall Street's Precious Metal exchange) reported the addition of 215,085 ounces of gold deposited in dealer, or registered, inventories, most likely in preparation for a significant rise in demand for delivery of gold contracts.

    August 27, politicians are finally responding to the demands of ordinary individual citizen investors. At a townhall meeting, Rep. Barney Frank, House Financial Services Committee Chair, indicated he was working with Rep. Ron Paul on a bill to audit the Federal Reserve. This would be a cataclysmic event if suspicions of the Fed's manipulation of gold prices to support the dollar were true. Last week the US treasury AGAIN sold yet ANOTHER extraordinarily large amount of debt to finance the deficit. In order to get low interest rates the US Dollar has to be strong and one can do that by selling off tons of gold to keep the price of Gold low and the Dollar high. That is exactly what happened early last week, on Monday Someone dumped enough gold to make the price drop more than $10 in a few seconds! On Tuesday Gold climbed $10 again and again was stamped back down to $950. By Friday the Fed was done selling debt and immediately Gold climbed $10. If the Fed is audited and found to have significantly less gold reserves than they are supposed to the dollar will collapse and gold will skyrocket!

    September 3, Sen. Bernie Sanders has authored a companion bill to Rep. Ron Paul's Audit the Fed bill. Called the Federal Reserve Sunshine Act of 2009, it already has 23 co-sponsors.

    September 16, Barrick Gold Corporation, the largest pure gold mining company in the world, announced a $5.6 Billion loss, more than its combined profits for the past 20 years. They technically defaulted on their gold hedges and are trying to settle for cash instead of the contractually specified gold bullion. Where did the gold go? Well, in 2003 Barrick Gold justified its immunity to an anti-trust lawsuit by claiming sovereign immunity because it was involved in gold suppression schemes with the US and other central banks by borrowing their gold and selling it (to keep gold down and the dollar up.)

    September 22, in a suspicious Friday-after-market-close announcement (announcements made late on Friday's are notorious for being bad news that it is hoped will be lost and forgotten over the weekend) the International Money Fund stated it would be selling a small portion of their gold holdings, or 403 tons. The IMF stated purpose is to regulate the international financial system, stabilize exchange rates, and offer loans to poor countries, yet it is located in Washington, DC and is undeniably controlled by US interests. Many believe this was a last ditch effort to stamp gold back down under $1000, which in turn will prop up the life-support-driven dollar a few more months. Today it was evident their desperate, last-ditch ploy did not work. China has already offered to buy ALL of the IMFs gold. Central banks will absorb the IMFs gold, who may already count IMF gold already in their own treasuries as their own. This morning gold gained more than $10 in four hours.

    October 7 There's just too much news to report on the strength of a long future bull market in Gold and the death of The Dollar. However Robert's Fisk's column in the Independent stating the obvious fact that the Middle East is the battleground where the dollar will die, and Oil Countries can't get rid of their US Dollars fast enough, has sparked a $30 climb in Gold prices IN ONE DAY!
  • well done ...
  • Adam503
    If Barrick Gold says something, believe the exact opposite.

    There's tons of reasons to believe the price of gold is too high. Vast quantities of land in Siberia/Central Asia are completely unexplored.

    Political influence (national and international):

    "CONTROVERSIAL PEOPLE associated with Barrick:

    Brian Mulroney: Prime minister of Canada from 1984 to 1993, Mulroney negotiated the NAFTA treaty that, under the banner of Free Trade, guaranteed vast quantities of Canada's energy resources to the United States. On leaving office in 1993, he became a director of Barrick and is chairman of Barrick’s International Advisory Board. Mulrony was recently implicated in a corruption scandal.

    George Bush Sr. (past senior advisor): George Bush was on board around the time that Barrick paid the US Treasury less than $10,000 to acquired a Nevada mine (on Western Shoshone traditional land) containing $10 billion in gold. The US Secretary of the Interior Bruce Babbitt called this deal, "the biggest gold heist since the days of Butch Cassidy," and "a form of legalized extortion."

    Peter Munk (chairman and founder): Munk initially got set up in the gold business with funds from Saudi arms dealer Adnan Khashoggi*. He now has his own private island in the Georgian Bay and the University of Toronto Center for International Studies named after him. (*Khashoggi is a well known Saudi arms dealer who was a conduit in the Iran-Contra Scandal -- the deal though which the U.S. used profits from arms sales to Iran to illegally fund the Contras in Nicaragua against the Left-wing Sandinista government.

    Gustavo Cisneros: The Venezuelan media mogul who is chairman and chief executive officer of Cisneros Group of Companies has been a director of Barrick since 2003. Cisneros hit the international spotlight for his alleged role in a failed coup to oust Venezuelan Pres. Hugo Chavez.

    James Sinclair: It has been almost ten years since an estimated 30,000-400,000 small-scale miners were forced off the Buyanhulu mine site in Tanzania to make way for corporate mining. CEO James Sinclair brokered that deal for Sutton Resources. Sutton was a friend of the president of Tanzania and several senior ministers, as was his daughter."

    http://www.crocodyl.org/wiki/barrick_gold
  • thanks for the interesting link: i'm not very knowledgeable and don't even have any gold teeth, but i don't see how it supports the idea that gold is not in short supply or that it is overpriced ... but like tjfxh notes: if the price is high enough there will be a supply - like squeezing oil from shale

    pdf of corpwatch's "barrick's dirty secrets" report is here:

    www.corpwatch.org/downloads/Barrick_final_sml.pdf
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