US facing massive economic ‘power shift’ with dollar’s downward spiral

By Agence France-Presse
Sunday, October 11th, 2009 -- 5:00 pm
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moneydollarsignburn US facing massive economic power shift with dollars downward spiralThe dollar's position as the world's leading reserve currency faces increased pressure as the financial crisis allows emerging economies greater influence on the world stage, analysts said.

A report last week in The Independent claiming that China, Russia and Gulf States are among nations prepared to ditch the dollar for oil trades has heightened the uncertainty surrounding the US currency's future.

The dollar slumped against rivals last week in the wake of the British daily's controversial report.

"The US dollar is being hurt by the continued talk of a shift away from a dollar-centric world," said Kit Juckes, an analyst at currency traders ECU Group.

"Three conclusions stand out very clearly. Firstly, the shift in economic power away from the G7 economies is continuing. "Secondly, there is a growing acceptance amongst those winners that one consequence of this power shift will be to strengthen their currencies.

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"And finally, as long as the US economy is not strong enough for any rise in interest rates to be conceivable for a long time, the dollar's underlying downtrend will remain in place," added Juckes.

The Independent, under the front-page headline "The Demise of the Dollar", reported last Tuesday that Gulf states, together with China, Russia, Japan and France, were considering replacing the dollar as the currency for oil deals.

"In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning -- along with China, Russia, Japan and France -- to end dollar dealings for oil," wrote The Independent's Middle East correspondent Robert Fisk.

They would switch "to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar," added Fisk, citing Gulf Arab and Chinese banking sources.

The report was denied by a host of countries, including Kuwait, Qatar and Russia, while France dismissed it as "pure speculation."

Even so, the United Nations itself last week called for a new global reserve currency to end dollar supremacy, which had allowed the United States the "privilege" of building up a huge trade deficit.

UN undersecretary-general for economic and social affairs, Sha Zukang, said "important progress in managing imbalances can be made by reducing the (dollar) reserve currency country's 'privilege' to run external deficits in order to provide international liquidity."

Zukang was speaking at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, whose President Robert Zoellick recently warned that the United States should not "take for granted" the dollar's role as preeminent global reserve currency.

Meanwhile at a G20 summit in Pittsburgh last month, world leaders unveiled a new vision for economic governance, with bold plans to fix global imbalances and give more clout to emerging giants such as China and India.

Following the summit, US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner repeated Washington's commitment to a strong dollar.

But last week the finance chief was left to watch as traders used The Independent's report as an opportunity to push lower the troubled US unit.

The report "has helped concentrate the minds of traders and investors alike, and has given them another excuse to take the dollar lower," GFT Global Markets analyst David Morrison told AFP.

"Despite what the Fed and other central bankers say, a weaker dollar is desirable because it is necessary to rebalance the global economy.

"As long as the decline is gentle and orderly, then they're happy. But aggressive selling would spook the markets," he added.

Commerzbank currency analyst Antje Praefcke agreed that the market's reaction was significant because it showed that the dollar was on a downward trajectory.

"The questionable article in the Independent was of course disclaimed," Praefcke said.

"It is nonetheless an interesting study of the pscychological factors which are currently putting pressure on the dollar. Even if conspiracy theories turn out to be nonsense, the dollar is subsequently able to retrace only some of its losses."

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Story comments are below...

  • Quisp
    What did the morons of US policy think would happen when they started acting like some exceptionalist empire that can do whatever it wants because might is right.
  • Savantster
    .
    More to the point, what did they think would happen when all that off-shoring of jobs started raising the living standards of those countries? And BIG countries, like China? ..... did you know, China has a "middle class" of 300 million people? that's almost the entire population of America.. and China's middle class is growing as they supply more and more 'stuff' to the rest of the world (not just us, anymore).

    India, which is bigger than China, is working on the same path.. they are just doing it in a more Socialist manner and don't have the same level of human rights abuses as China...

    As the economic power of these countries grows, the U.S. becomes less and less relevant. This has been known for a very long time. Check on the very rich in America.. they have huge baskets of currencies outside of the Dollar, and have for decades. If "we" fail, they still walk with hundreds of millions (or billions, in some cases).. The peasants will be left holding the [empty] bag.
  • malikk
    about damm time the world started dumping dollars ,
    the USA has been been like a alcholic running a bar tab and now the bar tender is tired of
    carrying drunk ass 'USA' and now wants his money and he does'nt want none of that bullshit fiat money your drunk ass has been printing in your basement he wants real money like gold or silver or else he is 'CHINA' cutting you off no more fucking drinks till you pay your tab.
  • malikk
    Thousands of “ghost” ships are anchored a few miles east of the port of Singapore. They have neither cargo nor crew, rolling idly, proof that exports are down and the worldwide recession is not yet over, ready to sail when trade does start up again as many hope.

    Only a few men are on board for the upkeep of the vessels and prevent accidents or stop pirates from seizing them. They are container ships, bulk carriers, oil tanker, a fleet the size of the entire British and American navies combined but with far greater tonnage and horizons. Used to go back and forth between China, Europe and the United States, these ships are now idle.

    Many are container ships, especially taking Chinese goods to the world. However, the Asian juggernaut has had its exports slashed by 17.5 per cent and has had to cut its imports by 43.1 per cent (January 2008-January 2009).

    Local fishermen say that every day new ships drop anchor. Some stay only for a few weeks, but most just stay put.

    Although most fly the flags of Panama, Bahamas and other places of convenience, owners are most likely from the West.

    Not having these ships sail means heavy losses in terms of crews, maintenance costs and interests. Last year an oil tanker could be chartered for US$ 80,000, now the same ship can go for as little as US$ 5,500. Bulk dry cargo ships (for minerals and grains) now go for US$ 10,000, down from US$ 300,000 in summer 2008. Right now would be the time to charter ships for the Christmas trade.
  • yvonneo
    I read an article on that as well--probably the same one. It's pretty amazing--at night, the locals say it looks like a city all lit up off shore. Also, what I got from the article is that these ships are out there to keep the truth hidden from the people of just how bad the world economy really is. They are anchored out in the oceon, empty, and the holiday season is upon us. These are ships that would normally be delivering goods around the world during this time of year. We are being lied to (as usual) about the severity of the economic crisis--it's far, far worse than what we are being told.

    But by god, no matter how bad things get for the rest of us, there always seems to be enough money for the war machine, but never enough money to put towards the general welfare of the people, such as healthcare, education, our infrastructure (that is being allowed to crumble all around us), etc. And, frankly, I'm quite angry about it.
  • yvonneo
    oops--typo. "oceOn should be "oceAn.
  • Chingo
    "no matter how bad things get for the rest of us, there always seems to be enough money for the war machine, but never enough money to put towards the general welfare of the people, such as healthcare, education, our infrastructure"

    -No matter how many safeguards we put in place or how much aid people or countries are given, someone always falls through the cracks or off the edge.
  • Since it was just reported that the U.S. is still the world's largest manufacturer any drop in the dollar would be cause for celebration.
  • malikk
    thats a bullshit the usa is the world largest manufacturer
  • wyrdless
    This just shows how ill informed people are and how they believe anything they want to because it seems to be true to them because they are to lazy to read and learn about the world in some place other than predigested news snippets from ideologues.

    The idea that China exports more than the USA has never really been stated in the news but most people assume it is so because of all the negative news stories.

    America manufactures about 30-40% more than China (as of summer this year) and has a GDP almost double that of China. (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-wo...)

    In case you were wondering America is still at the top (unless you lump the rest of Europe in with Germany) for making things like: Airplanes, heavy machinery, new drugs and machine tools. Which are things China still doesn't make for themselves, yet.

    For manufacturing, All you need to do, is look in the back of 'the economist' which is in most decent bookstores and on the last page where they go over the trade numbers you will find it; the information is right there in black and white.

    Malikk is one of those people who feels they can make broad statements and call BS when they actually have absolutely NO IDEA what is going on, evidenced by the demonstrably wrong ideas Malikk espouses that anybody with a computer can disprove in 5 minutes.
  • weedninja
    Not really. You get paid in those dollars, you know.
  • Chingo
    Someone gets it. This is more posturing and arm snapping than anything, the U.S is still prime financier in the global power broker pyramid
  • Savantster
    .
    but _what_ do we "manufacture"? and is it done "on American Soil"?

    we make war machines and big macs.

    And did you see who put out that "report"? .. looks like propaganda to me.
  • tjfxh
    The fact of the matter is that the funds for world trade are provisioned chiefly by the holder of the world's reserve currency running deficits. The US is tapped out and devaluing the dollar, so this global trade regime is grinding down. There is no one willing and able to step up to the job, so the world is facing a contraction of trade, which will result in lower growth, a global output gap, and rising global unemployment — unless some other solution can be reached. But without a replacement world financier, this doesn't seem to be in the cards. (The NWO with a global currency is just a conspiracy theory. Not gonna happen anytime soon. There's no entity remotely capable of replacing the US economy as the driver of world growth.)

    The system looks to be broken. If so, batten down the hatches. Big storm approaching.
  • kucinich2012
    I seem to have misplaced my battens, but I agree with you.
  • Chingo
    bat⋅ten2  /ˈbætn/ Show Spelled Pronunciation [bat-n] Show IPA
    –noun 1. a small board or strip of wood used for various building purposes, as to cover joints between boards, reinforce certain doors, or supply a foundation for lathing.
    2. a transverse iron or steel strip supporting the flooring strips of a metal fire escape.
    3. Nautical. a. a thin strip of wood inserted in a sail to keep it flat.
    b. a thin, flat length of wood or metal used for various purposes, as to hold the tarpaulin covering a hatch in place.

    Whos an idiot now
  • kucinich2012
    Damn, Man. I was just making a joke. Lighten up! I never said ANYTHING about you being an idiot.
  • Savantster
    .
    Based on the tread, it looks like he still is. I was trying to imagine why he would post that in response to your quip.. did you insult him some place else or something? cause he came out of left field with that...
  • kucinich2012
    Savantster, I have NO IDEA what brought that comment on; I was just trying to posit a little humor into the thread. I'm glad you caught it.
    Nope...I've never had a run-in with the person before. Thanks for the note....
  • texico
    GET READY FOR THE NEW WORLD ORDER VERY SOON. CANADA, USA ANS MEXICO WILL MERGE IN 2010 TO START ANOTHER ONE OF THE 8 UNIONS THAT HAVE TO TAKE PLACE BEFORE THE NEW WORLD ORDER. SATAN WITH HIS RIGHT HAND EARTHLY MAN WILL CONTOL THE NWO AND THE CHIP WILL BE INTRODUCED FOR YOU TO EITHER ACCEPT IT OR DENY IT. FOLLOWING THE DENIAL YOU WILL BE BEHEADED. IF YOU TAKE THE MARK, OR THE CHIP YOU WILL SPEND ETERNITY IN HELL WITH CONSTANT TORMENT.
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