Economy grew 3.5 percent in third quarter

By The Associated Press
Thursday, October 29th, 2009 -- 7:42 am
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istockphoto 3723653 stack of 100 dollar bills Economy grew 3.5 percent in third quarterThe economy grew at a 3.5 percent pace in the third quarter, the best showing in two years, fueled by government-supported spending on cars and homes.

The Commerce Department's report Thursday delivered the strongest signal yet that the economy entered a new, though fragile, phase of recovery and that the worst recession since the 1930s has ended.

Many analysts expect the pace of the budding recovery to be plodding due to rising unemployment and continuing difficulties by both consumers and businesses to secure loans.

Still, the much-awaited turnaround ended the streak of four straight quarters of contracting economic activity, the first time that's happened on records dating to 1947.

It also marked the first increase since the spring of 2008, when the economy experienced a short-lived uptick in growth.

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The third-quarter's performance — the strongest since right before the country fell into recession in December 2007 — was slightly better than the 3.3 percent growth rate economists expected.

Armed with cash from government support programs, consumers led the rebound in the third quarter, snapping up cars and homes.

Consumer spending on big-ticket manufactured goods soared at an annualized rate of 22.3 percent in the third quarter, the most since the end of 2001. The jump largely reflected car purchases spurred by the government's Cash for Clunkers program that offered a rebate of up to $4,500 to buy new cars and trade in old gas guzzlers.

The housing market also turned a corner in the summer. Spending on housing projects jumped at an annualized pace of 23.4 percent, the largest jump since 1986. It was the first time since the end of 2005 that spending on housing was positive.

The government's $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers supported the housing rebound. Congress is considering extending the credit, which expires on Nov. 30.

The collapse of the housing market led the country into the recession. Rotten mortgage securities spiraled into a banking crisis. Home foreclosures surged. The sector's return to good health is a crucial ingredient to a sustained economic recovery.

Brisk spending by the federal government, led by efforts to stimulate the economy and on defense, also played into the third-quarter turnaround. Federal government spending rose at a rate of 7.9 percent in the third quarter, on top of a 11.4 percent growth rate in the second quarter.

In other encouraging developments, businesses boosted spending on equipment and software at a 1.1 percent pace in the third quarter, the first increase in nearly two years.

Third-quarter activity also was helped by increased sales of U.S.-made goods to customers overseas, as economies in Asia, Europe and elsewhere improved. The cheaper dollar is aiding U.S. exporters, making their goods less expensive to foreign buyers. Exports of U.S. goods soared at an annualized rate of 21.4 percent in the third quarter, the most since the final quarter of 1996.

Businesses, meanwhile, reduced their stockpiles of goods less in the third quarter, after slashing them at a record pace in the second quarter. With inventories at rock-bottom levels, even the smallest increase in demand probably will led to factories boosting production. This restocking of depleted inventories is expected to help sustain the recovery in the coming months.

Even with the third-quarter improvement, the economy isn't out of the woods yet.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and members of President Barack Obama's economics team have warned that the nascent recovery won't be robust enough to prevent the unemployment rate — now at a 26-year high of 9.8 percent — from rising into next year.

Economists say the jobless rate probably nudged up to 9.9 percent in October and will go as high as 10.5 percent around the middle of next year before declining gradually. The government is scheduled to release the October jobless rate report next week.

Rising unemployment and continuing difficulties by both consumers and businesses to secure loans are among the forces likely to weigh on the recovery.

With joblessness growing and wages dipping slightly in the third quarter, consumers are expected to turn more restrained in the months ahead. That would put a much heavier burden on America's businesses to keep the recovery going.

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Story comments are below...

  • growlroo
    Total BS pumped out there to desperately stop the Dollar from plunging anymore. It won't work. We have a Huge Treasury bubble just about to burst. They are just playing the propoganda game to try and push it off as long as possible.

    Our country is going to be in sucksville for a longtime unless the corrupt d-bags who run us figure out a way to bring JOBS back into this country.
  • Derestanne
    And let me add this postscript. I hope that no one gets some crazy idea that I am encouraging criminal activity with my last comment. Those of you who have been following other news articles on Raw Story and elsewhere know that things are getting bad and people are turning to desperate measures to pay their bills. It should never become necessary for this to happen and it is a crime in itself that this society cannot or will not provide sufficient employment to meet the basic needs of all of its citizens.
  • Derestanne
    Another farce of a "news story" - it's nothing but "pre-Holiday Shopping Season propaganda" so the rest of us will go out and max our credit cards on the false hope that things are getting better. If things are getting better it's strictly for the wall street banksters. The rest of us now must resort to selling marijuana, prostitution, dealing in stolen property or weapons, medicare fraud or other criminal activities to try and survive in this "jobless recovery".
  • seen2much
    Like Gerald Celente says: "This is no recovery, THIS IS A COVER UP!!!"... The king AND his court wears no clothes, and a long hard cold winter is descending upon us all. The locusts will seek to raid the nests of the ants and bees, they will NOT find us defenseless. Hoard all you like, you can't hoard enough to weather the coming economic ice age. The difference between death and survival is: What can you produce? Can you grow food sans transported chemicals, hydrocarbons and feedstock?(sustainable farming is possible, but even most farmers today cannot produce in such a fashion.)
    Get ready for a MASSIVE paradigm shift in how all of us see and understand money and wealth. Many of us will not survive the shift, even a tough informed bastard like me will have a rough go of what is coming.
    Good luck, and God bless you.(I'm not even very religious.)

    Baa! BAAAA! Little sheeple, have you any meat to pay the wolves?
  • HeidiStevenson
    What a farce!

    Do you suppose the growth is a result of the bonuses the bankers paid themselves?

    It certainly has nothing to do with production, and ever less to do with the welfare of the people. It's obviously nothing but an accounting game.
  • wyrdless
    It grew at 3.5%?
    More like inflated by 3.5%

    Bernake and the Fed crew have Doubled the money supply in the last year, and this will come flying out as asset inflation since this doubling will artificially lower bond interest rates. People are being chased into Stocks and commodities to get a 'return' thus causing the current 'stock rally' and 'green shoots'

    In reality, Cash for clunkers was a waste, it destroys working cars at a high cost to the government. Wealth can NEVER be created by destroying wealth.

    It would be as if the government paid people to break windows then claimed the economy was stimulated when the glass replacement business showed strong profit growth

    for more info
    www.mises.org


    To all those people who think quantitative easing will work because it is backed by bank assets like mortgages and bonds which can be taken as collateral.... Think again, France was nearly destroyed after the french revolution by floating currency backed by church lands for the purpose of buying church lands. They thought the money could be removed gradually as the land was purchased, and that it could never inflate since it is backed by the land in question and hence something of real value.

    They were of course wrong and caused untold havoc just like every other country that has ever inflated their currency.
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