‘We have already entered peak oil,’ IEA source reportedly claims

By Stephen C. Webster
Monday, November 9th, 2009 -- 9:03 pm
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burning%20oil%20rig We have already entered peak oil, IEA source reportedly claimsTwo International Energy Agency whistleblowers have come forward with startling claims about the world's supply of crude oil, according to a report published Tuesday.

"We have [already] entered the 'peak oil' zone," an unnamed former IEA official told British newspaper The Guardian. "I think that the situation is really bad."

A second whistleblower reportedly claimed that the IEA's current figures are inflated due to pressure from the United States and a pervasive fear that the announcement of falling oil output in the future could cause markets to respond with panic.

The claims come on the same day the IEA plans to publish its annual "World Energy Outlook" report for 2009.

"Many inside the organisation believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90m to 95m barrels a day would be impossible but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further," one of the IEA sources reportedly told the paper. "And the Americans fear the end of oil supremacy because it would threaten their power over access to oil resources."

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The agency reported in its 2008 World Energy Outlook that a field-by-field analysis of production trends revealed "that decline rates are likely to rise significantly in the long term, from an average of 6.7% today to 8.6% in 2030."

The whistleblowers see things differently.

"The IEA in 2005 was predicting oil supplies could rise as high as 120m barrels a day by 2030 although it was forced to reduce this gradually to 116m and then 105m last year," one of the sources claimed. "The 120m figure always was nonsense but even today's number is much higher than can be justified and the IEA knows this."

In a 2008 interview with Fatih Birol, chief economist at the IEA, Guardian environment writer George Monbiot reported that the IEA had expected peak oil output to be reached in a decade or two.

"In terms of non-Opec [countries outside the big oil producers' cartel]," Birol reportedly said, "we are expecting that in three, four years' time the production of conventional oil will come to a plateau, and start to decline. In terms of the global picture, assuming that Opec will invest in a timely manner, global conventional oil can still continue, but we still expect that it will come around 2020 to a plateau as well, which is, of course, not good news from a global-oil-supply point of view."

The 2008 World Energy Outlook suggested peak oil would be reached in 2030.

The prediction that peak oil production was approaching in 2020 was enough to "scare the pants off" Monbiot, considering the predicted implications of a global energy crunch in just over a decade. However, if the allegations by The Guardian's whistleblowers are indeed true and peak oil has been reached, dark days loom for the global economy.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the agency is not expected to announce the arrival at such a dramatic conclusion. Instead, the 2009 report due out Tuesday will predict slower growth in demand for oil, the Journal reported.

Reuters added: "While the Paris-based IEA has repeatedly warned that a lack of investment could lead to a strain on supply, it maintains that there is enough oil in the ground."

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Story comments are below...
  • farang
    "And the Americans fear the end of oil supremacy because it would threaten their power over access to oil resources."

    We all hear about how America, with only 5% of the world's population uses 25% of it's oil. What is less publicized is how the US navy is the largest user of Diesel fuel in the world: 50% of the US total. Combine that with the USAF use of jet fuel, and you start to get a clearer picture of why the US military had Afghanistan ringed with troops BEFORE the "terrorist attacks" on 9/11/01.

    And why Exxon-Mobil just received control of one of the largest oil fileds in iraq...and why Karzai, the former Union 76 exec ended up as America's puppet president in Afghanistan. For control of the pipeline the Taliban would not agree to give us...and how 8curiously* one of the CIA hand-picked agitators, Tim Osman aka Osama bib-Laden, an associate of George herbert Walker Bush, ended up as our modern day version of Emmanuel Goldstein.

    It will one day dawn on the peasants of the USA how they were manipulated and duped by the Military/Industrial/Corporate Complex to sacrifice their lives and standard of living through the military coup of 9/11/01.

    Now be good little serfs, and wave your flags and "give thanks" to all the illegal occupiers of Iraq and Afghanistan, the illegal murderers of Pakistanis, and the agitators itching to steal Iran's oil that you label "Freedom Fighters", aka the US military. Watch you NFL and "praise the soldiers" "keeping you safe", you blithering fools.
  • thx1138a
    Here, here. Well said.
    .
    You have heard before that "Al-Qaeda" roughly translates into "the base," but were you aware that "Ana raicha Al Qaeda" is arabic colloquial for "I'm going to the toilet"? Would hardened terrorists hell bent on the destruction of the west name their organization after a euphemism for taking a shit?

    ...top ranking CIA operatives admit that al-Qaeda is a complete and total fabrication by the CIA. They plainly state that NO SUCH ORGANIZATION HAS EVER EXISTED AT ANY TIME. The fantasy was spun in January 2001 by Jamal al Fadl, a Sudanese who had been with Bin Laden in the early 1990s. Jamal al Fadl stole money from Bin Laden, and then sought protection in the USA. The FBI and CIA paid him hundreds of thousands of dollars to create the al-Qaeda fiction.

    Omar al-Baghdadi, the supposed leader of an al-Qaeda-affiliated group in Iraq, was declared non-existent by US military officials, who say he is a fictional character created to give an Iraqi face to a foreign-run terrorist group.
    .
  • paullohan66
    Dem’s should use this report to pass the cap & trade bill. They should also spread the news about the planned wind farms off the Atlantic coast;158,000 wind towers built by six factories in this country. And 22,000 companies in 32 states, now working on green energy projects.

    It’ time to project the positive to the American people. Let the right-wing spew their vomit!
  • olduvai
    Hey Simpletons!

    All the wind turbines in the world won't make a bit of difference.

    Lithographic photovoltaic won't save you.

    Nano fresnel structures on solar won't change a thing.

    Nuclear --- ha ha ha. Nope! Closed loop fusion cycle. Bwaaa ha ha ha.

    Nat gas, coal, wood, moon rocks woooo hoooo!

    Corn, algae, switch grass, oooohh baby baby! Baaa ha ha ha. How's Berkeley doing with the magic enzyme? Hmmm, just need to figure out how to invalidate the Second Law of Thermodynamics.

    Maybe Jeebus will save us. :(
  • wial
    The Earth is an energy-rich environment. We'll find ways to produce more energy. It's the non-renewables I'm worried about, and the climate. Energy destroys all that faster. It's the problem, not the solution.
  • Savantster
    .
    Combination of those things, and wave/tidal and geothermal _can_ save us, but we also have to find alternatives to many of the ways we currently do things because we built this world on fossil fuels, now we need to rebuild it on other fuels.

    Science will save us, as it always has.. we just have to invest it in.. what's killing us is money and the profit motive. Once living is seen as more profitable than money and greed and accumulation of "stuff", we'll be fine (as a species).. unfortunately, a lot of people will suffer and die before that happens. Mostly because the vast majority is too stupid to understand just how Science can (and will) save us.
  • farang
    "All the wind turbines in the world won't make a bit of difference."

    Nonsense. Only those with limited vision would try to project just one alternative source as "the savior" and denigrate replacing oil. It will be a combination of sources, and better usage of said sources.

    It will be how we use the remaining oil sources to convert that determine the level of pain the conversion inflicts on the world.

    Waves, wind, water wheels, solar, algae, jatropha, etc. And others yet undiscovered or developed.

    Buffet didn't just pay $28 billion for a coal-carrying railroad because he is frivolous with cash.
  • olduvai
    Buffet just paid $28 billion for a coal-carrying railroad because we're gonna be burning nastier and nastier amounts of coal as oil further depletes and liquid hydrocarbon prices skyrocket. Too bad we're past peak coal.
  • starvapor
    Cap and Trade, or something like it will be the next big bubble that Goldman Sachs will help to create, control, manipulate to burst and reap the benefits of it's controlled failure.
    Just like they've been doing since the Great Depression.
    See: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/2912...
  • miggy
    Your're 100% spot on!

    There's already been talk up on Capital Hill about those Carbon Creadit Default Swaps. It's obvious The Globalists plan is to go for Broke. From War, our economy and lack of it. To our HealthCare and now our enviroment.

    There's no stopping the Elite's path of mayhem. END THE FED!
  • Deb
    We need mass transit -- not 300 million Toyota Pruis' for America. We don't have the resources or energy to do that.

    We need to realize there are limits on growth. We need to realize that maybe we should be improving our world, our lives, and what we have instead of just producing a bunch of cheap crap.

    There is an oilfield far larger than that in Alaska. It's called improving energy efficiency and we would be saving millions of barrels of oil and billions of dollars.
  • philedrifter
    And stop polluting our environment.

    Harnessing solar, wind, tidal is the wave of the future.

    /giggity giggity
  • zogtheobvious
    And now the US's hoarding of the "Strategic Oil Supply" can begin to pay off. As nations panic and run out of oil, we can sell ours for $300 a barrel and kill the deficit within a few months. (Speculating... I haven't actually crunched the numbers)

    And the Neocons will get EVEN RICHER!
  • Chris From Maine
    theres 727 million barrels in the reserve. at 300 a barrel we would get about 218 billion dollars.

    that would be about 1/6th of the deficit.

    As for the whole "peak oil" thing.. If this is true (and I dont doubt that it might be) then we REALLY need to start making hybrids/electric/hydrogen cars and we should start today. When oil gets 300/barrel we will be paying 10 bucks a gallon for gas and the economy (whatever is left of it) will be finished.
  • olduvai
    Uhhm, I guess it wasn't obvious enough for everyone.

    US Oil Consumption ~ 21M bbl/day

    US SPR ~ 725M bbl

    725 bbl / 21 bbl/day = 34 days

    It's called... 'd i v i s i o n'

    Oh wait, I forgot about all those secret oil wells that the neocons are hiding in the midwest. Man, they are a crafty lot.
  • farang
    "Uhhm, I guess it wasn't obvious enough for everyone."

    Yes you were, you just aren't thinking it through. By cutting our military spending by 75%, we save @ $450 billion a year, at least, not to mention the "supplementary war funding" of $80 billion every three months.

    Since the US military uses over 50% of the total the US uses as a nation, we only will have to replace 50% of the energy used today.

    How much of Spain's energy is derived from wind, olduvai?

    What makes you think wind can't be used to power individual homes with neighborhood wind turbines in areas with level 6 wind patterns? Or solar, like the huge German-led mega-project now being built in the African Sahara that will generate power to Europe?

    The Industrial Revolution occurred BEFORE the era of petroleum, olduvai, and I have faith we are eons ahead technologically over that era.

    Will there have to be adjustments made, some painful?

    Of course. But the sooner we dismantle this fascist push by the US military to usurp the world's remaining oil reserves, the less painful it will be.

    Frankly, this current "depression" economy is "just what the doctor ordered" to induce the masses to hail militarism and nationalism as a key to jobs, both in the military and civilian munition factories, just like the last depression...a coincidence???

    I think not. Rather a devious plan known as "Project for the New American century" implemented on 9/11/01.
  • vrock71
    You forgot to take into account the concept of wilful ignorance that we live under in the industrialized world
  • philedrifter
    We'll never 'kill the deficit' because the deficit is what America owes to the Federal Reserve, and the Federal Reserve is neither federal nor is there a reserve. They print money for pennys on the dollar and then loan it back to the US at face value, incurring interest the whole way.
  • damixaustex
    We?
    If you think that what's underground somehow belongs to "we the people," you're deluded. Even Venezuela is having trouble with that one.
  • Savantster
    .
    Of course, all natural resources [rightfully] belong to "we, the people".. all people of the planet. this idea of specific persons laying claim to vast swaths of natural resources is insane seeing as how it was just dumb luck that they were born into those families that were born before, when everyone could just roam out and claim things. There's nothing left to claim, so those born now are de facto slaves to those that, through nothing but luck, came before.

    The venus project and the zeitgeist movement explore ideas that would make the world a much much better place... and show how that future will come no matter what, so why fight it and cause so much suffering in the mean time?
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