Report: Iran incapable of producing nuke within six to eight years

By Stephen C. Webster
Sunday, October 18th, 2009 -- 8:56 pm
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irannukeprogram Report: Iran incapable of producing nuke within six to eight yearsA Washington Post report published Sunday is drawing a wave of cheers across the Internet for revealing what is being hailed as "the truth" about Iran's nuclear program.

Specifically, the report states that Iran is incapable of producing a nuclear bomb within the next six to eight years, turning on ear repeated claims in media that Iran is only a short time away from possessing such a weapon.

"The regime's most likely path to the bomb begins in Natanz, in central Iran, the site of the nuclear facility where over the past three years about 1,500 kilograms of uranium gas has been enriched to low levels," Joseph Cirincione wrote. "Iran could kick out U.N. inspectors, abandon the Non-Proliferation Treaty and reprocess the gas into highly enriched uranium in about six months; it would take at least six more months to convert that uranium into the metal form required for one bomb. Technical problems with both processes could stretch this period to three years. Finally, Iran would need perhaps five additional years -- and several explosive tests -- to develop a Hiroshima-yield bomb that could be fitted onto a ballistic missile."

William Hartung, writing for Talking Points Memo, called the report "tremendously useful," praising it as "the truth" about Iran's program.

"This means there is plenty of time to engage in smart diplomacy aimed at heading off this possibility," he wrote. "And since there's no evidence that Iran is currently going full speed ahead towards a bomb, this timeline may be extended."

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"Even if it is determined that the Iranians have restarted weapons design work, however, it’s important to stress that there is still no evidence — and no, John Bolton’s op-eds don’t count as evidence — that Iran has decided to obtain a nuclear weapon, as opposed to breakout capacity," ThinkProgress writer Matt Duss noted. This is an extremely important distinction, one that Iran war advocates have consistently attempted to elide."

However, it's possible that none of the evidence about Iran's much-debated nuclear program even matters.

David Ignatius, writing in The Washington Post on Friday, raised the status of a Nucleonics Week report that claimed Iran's low-enriched uranium was causing problems for its refineries.

"This news strikes me as a potential bombshell," he opined. "If the Nucleonics Week report is accurate (and there's some uncertainty among experts about how serious the contamination problem is), the Iranian nuclear program is in much worse shape than most analysts had realized. The contaminated fuel it has produced so far would be all but useless for nuclear weapons. To make enough fuel for a bomb, Iran might have to start over -- this time avoiding the impurities."

In spite of this, U.S. intelligence officials are considering a rewrite of a 2007 National Intelligence Estimate that said Iran had abandoned pursuit of nuclear weapons in 2003, according to The Wall Street Journal.

"So far, intelligence officials are not 'ready to declare that invalid,' a senior U.S. intelligence official said, emphasizing that the judgment covered the 2003-2007 time frame only," the paper reported. "That leaves room for a reassessment of the period since the December 2007 report was completed, the official suggested."

The paper added that while Vice President Joe Biden and officials with the National Security Council have "expressed interest" in an updated N.I.E. on Iran's nuclear program, no decision has been made. President Obama's diplomatic efforts in dealing with Iran would be greatly complicated should the U.S. intelligence community conclude that Iran is once again working toward a nuclear weapon.

Nevertheless, "[the] real danger is not a nuclear-armed Iran but a Middle East with more nuclear-armed nations and unresolved territorial, economic and political disputes," the Post noted Sunday. "That is a recipe for disaster, and that is why there is no country-specific solution; we cannot play nuclear whack-a-mole.

"A comprehensive plan must build barriers against acquiring nuclear weapons and must reduce the motivation to do so. This means dealing with the regional security and prestige issues that motivate most countries to start nuclear programs. It requires a global approach that deals with both sides of the nuclear coin: disarmament and proliferation. Reducing existing nuclear stockpiles creates the support needed to stop the spread of the weapons; stopping the spread creates the security needed to continue reductions. We must keep flipping that coin over. Each flip, each step, makes us a little safer."

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Story comments are below...
  • m
    Propaganda works. It is sort of like Mad Libs.

    (Insert name of Middle Eastern Arabic Country) is buying (name of a weapon material), and weaponizing it to make a (name of a weapon of mass destruction. The civilized world can only save itself by bombing (Insert name of Middle Eastern Arabic nation) back to the stone age. And we must do it NOW! Even a 24 hour delay could be fatal to us.

    An invasion of Iraq, then bombing Syria, now a call for invading Iran. What lucky Middle Eastern Arabic nation will it be next time?
  • OldAtlantic
    Not with a Muslim president who is a true believer in charge. The US established Los Alamos in 1943. Russia exploded its in August of 1949. Can't they use wiki? When you enrich uranium you get an easier to make bomb. The US didn't even test that version of the bomb, it dropped it directly. Iran is enriching its way to the easy bomb design.
  • SteveA
    The "Muslim president" is not "in charge". Do you know anything about the political structure of Iran? 'Cause it certainly doesn't look like it.

    "When you enrich uranium you get an easier to make bomb." - Yeah, and if you find a dollar on the street you're closer to being a millionaire.

    "Iran is enriching its way to the easy bomb design." - And you know this because...

    Seriously, do you just make shit up or are you relying on the made up shit of other war-loving conservatives? You and every other conservative need to learn basic facts before you type.
  • dickerson3870
    Forget it, SteveA. With a 'screen name' (username) like OldAtlantic, he will never listen to reason!
  • texasaggie
    If you haven't gotten enough of OA's wingnuttery on this particular story, go over to the story about the Lousianan Justice of the Peace who is whining that everyone hates him. On that story OA exposes his basic bigotry for the world to see and it really ain't pretty.
  • dickerson3870
    RE: go over to the story about the Lousianan Justice of the Peace

    MY COMMENT: OH MY GAWD! No wonder he is such a big supporter of Israel!
  • Guest
    RE: "Iran is enriching its way to the easy bomb design." - OldAtlantic

    SEE: "Rethinking World War III" by Justin Raimondo, 10/19/09

    (excerpts)...Fortunately, thanks to the spooks, it was not to be. Yet Obama, while not stuck fighting a war initiated by his predecessor, nonetheless had passed down to him the same albatross that has ringed the neck of every administration since the early 1960s: the power and influence of the Israel lobby. The Lobby was and is bound and determined to enlist the U.S. in its crusade against Tehran, and under Obama the pressure has been ramped up considerably. Obama himself has played a key role in all this, accusing the Iranians of building nuclear weapons while ignoring the 2007 NIE...
    ...Indeed, the only real revelation unveiled by recent events is the fact that the Iranians have been so unexpectedly forthcoming in the first round of negotiations with the U.S., even offering to ship most of their known fissile material abroad to be refined and used for medical purposes. If and when this comes about, it will put what ought to be the final nail in the Lobby’s campaign to drag us into another bloody and prolonged war on Israel’s behalf.

    Yet we aren’t dealing with an ordinary lobbying group here, like AARP or the NRA. The Lobby has the power and influence of a foreign government behind it, one that enjoys the unprecedented benefits of a "special relationship" with the U.S. amounting to virtual symbiosis. These guys don’t give up so easily, and why should they? After all, they’ve dictated U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East for many years now, and they intend to continue doing so – no matter the consequences for the U.S. and the rest of the world...

    ENTIRE ARTICLE - http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2009/10/18/r...
  • Disenfranchised
    Wait, I thought according to Bush, Bushites, Neocons, and Obama faithful cultists ALIKE...Iran is a 'threat'???
  • farang
    Wow. Here is the headline from Raw Story: "Report: Iran six-eight years from having a nuke"

    Here is the actual article: "Specifically, the report states that Iran is incapable of producing a nuclear bomb within the next six to eight years, turning on ear repeated claims in media that Iran is only a short time away from possessing such a weapon."

    Is Raw now part of the Zionist megaphone network demonizing Iran???
  • Guest
    RE: "Iran is enriching its way to the easy bomb design."

    SEE: "Rethinking World War III", by Justin Raimondo, 10/19/09

    (excerpts) ... the same albatross that has ringed the neck of every administration since the early 1960s: the power and influence of the Israel lobby. The Lobby was and is bound and determined to enlist the U.S. in its crusade against Tehran, and under Obama the pressure has been ramped up considerably. Obama himself has played a key role in all this, accusing the Iranians of building nuclear weapons while ignoring the 2007 NIE...

    ...Indeed, the only real revelation unveiled by recent events is the fact that the Iranians have been so unexpectedly forthcoming in the first round of negotiations with the U.S., even offering to ship most of their known fissile material abroad to be refined and used for medical purposes. If and when this comes about, it will put what ought to be the final nail in the Lobby’s campaign to drag us into another bloody and prolonged war on Israel’s behalf.

    Yet we aren’t dealing with an ordinary lobbying group here, like AARP or the NRA. The Lobby has the power and influence of a foreign government behind it, one that enjoys the unprecedented benefits of a "special relationship" with the U.S. amounting to virtual symbiosis. These guys don’t give up so easily, and why should they? After all, they’ve dictated U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East for many years now, and they intend to continue doing so – no matter the consequences for the U.S. and the rest of the world...

    ENTIRE ARTICLE - http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2009/10/18/r...
  • 6 years sounds like a long time - because that includes 3 years for making a Big One (by Israeli standards) and a delivery system (rocket.)
    3 years to have something that explodes in a mushroom cloud - that sounds a lot closer.
    Not immediate, but 3 years goes by pretty quickly, when The International Community is trying to agree on concrete steps to diffuse a potentially tragic situation. . . and then take them.
    Just my 2¢ . . .
  • Satan
    Don't twist the truth Raw, the U.S. has known since 2003 that Iran isn't even seeking the bomb.

    How could they build a nuke in six if they're not seeking a nuke? Brazil can build one tomorrow btw, why don't yo ufreak out about that.

    Hard to take Raw Story seriously after the way they propigated the CIA's work in Iran during the elections there.

    What's up with that suicide bombing?
  • Satan
    "Not with a Muslim president who is a true believer in charge." - This douchebag knows that behaving like he does only helps Obama. It's a lame attempt to associate Obamas legitimate detractors with wing nuts and morons.
  • Guest
    RE: "Iran is enriching its way to the easy bomb design." - OldAtlantic

    SEE: "Rethinking World War III", by Justin Raimondo, 10/19/09

    (excerpts) ... the same albatross that has ringed the neck of every administration since the early 1960s: the power and influence of the Israel lobby. The Lobby was and is bound and determined to enlist the U.S. in its crusade against Tehran, and under Obama the pressure has been ramped up considerably. Obama himself has played a key role in all this, accusing the Iranians of building nuclear weapons while ignoring the 2007 NIE...

    ...Indeed, the only real revelation unveiled by recent events is the fact that the Iranians have been so unexpectedly forthcoming in the first round of negotiations with the U.S., even offering to ship most of their known fissile material abroad to be refined and used for medical purposes. If and when this comes about, it will put what ought to be the final nail in the Lobby’s campaign to drag us into another bloody and prolonged war on Israel’s behalf.

    Yet we aren’t dealing with an ordinary lobbying group here, like AARP or the NRA. The Lobby has the power and influence of a foreign government behind it, one that enjoys the unprecedented benefits of a "special relationship" with the U.S. amounting to virtual symbiosis. These guys don’t give up so easily, and why should they? After all, they’ve dictated U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East for many years now, and they intend to continue doing so – no matter the consequences for the U.S. and the rest of the world...

    ENTIRE ARTICLE - http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2009/10/18/r...
  • dickerson3870
    RE: "Iran is enriching its way to the easy bomb design." - OldAtlantic

    SEE: "Rethinking World War III", by Justin Raimondo, 10/19/09

    (excerpts) ... the same albatross that has ringed the neck of every administration since the early 1960s: the power and influence of the Israel lobby. The Lobby was and is bound and determined to enlist the U.S. in its crusade against Tehran, and under Obama the pressure has been ramped up considerably. Obama himself has played a key role in all this, accusing the Iranians of building nuclear weapons while ignoring the 2007 NIE...

    ...Indeed, the only real revelation unveiled by recent events is the fact that the Iranians have been so unexpectedly forthcoming in the first round of negotiations with the U.S., even offering to ship most of their known fissile material abroad to be refined and used for medical purposes. If and when this comes about, it will put what ought to be the final nail in the Lobby’s campaign to drag us into another bloody and prolonged war on Israel’s behalf.

    Yet we aren’t dealing with an ordinary lobbying group here, like AARP or the NRA. The Lobby has the power and influence of a foreign government behind it, one that enjoys the unprecedented benefits of a "special relationship" with the U.S. amounting to virtual symbiosis. These guys don’t give up so easily, and why should they? After all, they’ve dictated U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East for many years now, and they intend to continue doing so – no matter the consequences for the U.S. and the rest of the world...

    ENTIRE ARTICLE - http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2009/10/18/r...
  • dickerson3870
    RE: "Iran is enriching its way to the easy bomb design." - OldAtlantic

    SEE: "Rethinking World War III", by Justin Raimondo, 10/19/09

    (excerpts) ... the same albatross that has ringed the neck of every administration since the early 1960s: the power and influence of the Israel lobby. The Lobby was and is bound and determined to enlist the U.S. in its crusade against Tehran, and under Obama the pressure has been ramped up considerably. Obama himself has played a key role in all this, accusing the Iranians of building nuclear weapons while ignoring the 2007 NIE...

    ...Indeed, the only real revelation unveiled by recent events is the fact that the Iranians have been so unexpectedly forthcoming in the first round of negotiations with the U.S., even offering to ship most of their known fissile material abroad to be refined and used for medical purposes. If and when this comes about, it will put what ought to be the final nail in the Lobby’s campaign to drag us into another bloody and prolonged war on Israel’s behalf.

    Yet we aren’t dealing with an ordinary lobbying group here, like AARP or the NRA. The Lobby has the power and influence of a foreign government behind it, one that enjoys the unprecedented benefits of a "special relationship" with the U.S. amounting to virtual symbiosis. These guys don’t give up so easily, and why should they? After all, they’ve dictated U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East for many years now, and they intend to continue doing so – no matter the consequences for the U.S. and the rest of the world...
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